Monday, June 22, 2009

History of the India Nuclear Program

The Indian nuclear program was started in the mid-forties, around the time it gained independence from over two centuries of British rule, and soon after the United States bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 

Both these factors had a powerful impact on Indian leaders, who saw India's technological backwardness and military inferiority as the main causes of colonization over two centuries ago. It was therefore natural that India would also follow the dominant power at the end of the Second World War, the United States, which relied on nuclear technology for energy as well as defense. 

From the very beginning, the Indian nuclear program was ambitious and envisaged having indigenous capability for covering the entire nuclear fuel cycle. Over the years, apart from nuclear reactors, India also developed facilities for mining Uranium, fabricating fuel, manufacturing heavy water, reprocessing spent fuel to extract Plutonium and, more recently, enriching Uranium. 

During the early years, though only a part of the infrastructure needed to manufacture nuclear weapons was in place, the program never lost sight of the possibility that the facilities constructed and expertise gained could be used for military purposes. 

The strategy used, perhaps not intentionally, were remarkably close to something that Robert Oppenheimer said in 1946 while responding to a proposal for the international control of nuclear weapons. "We know very well what we would do if we signed such a convention: We would not make atomic weapons, at least not to start with, but we would build enormous plants, and we would design these plants in such a way that they could be converted with the maximum ease and the minimum time delay to the production of atomic weapons saying, this is just in case somebody two-times us; we would stockpile uranium; we would keep as many of our developments secret as possible; we would locate our plants, not where they would do the most good for the production of power, but where they would do the most good for protection against enemy attack." 

Several countries, like the U.K., Canada and the U.S., offered technical help to India's fledgling nuclear program. The framework for U.S. aid was the Atoms for Peace program, initiated by Eisenhower to forestall criticism of the use of atomic energy for military purposes and to wean away third world countries from the Soviet Union. 

As part of this initiative, the U.S. offered $80 million as a low interest loan towards the cost of the first Indian nuclear reactor at Tarapur, constructed by General Electric. As it became clear that China was developing a nuclear bomb, there was even a proposal that the U.S. help India conduct a nuclear test. 

In a 1961 memorandum to Secretary of State Dean Rusk, George McGhee, Director of the Policy Planning Council, suggested that assisting India to test a nuclear device first was one way to reduce the political impact of a Chinese bomb. Rusk did not approve this idea, in part, because India's Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was likely to reject it. At the same time as the development of its nuclear infrastructure was going on, India under Nehru also tried to change the world so that it was not necessary to develop nuclear weapons. 

As a champion of the non-aligned movement, Nehru had made several disarmament proposals. Prominent among them was the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). In a proposal dated April 8, 1954, he requested the nuclear weapon states to negotiate: "Some sort of what may be called `Standstill Agreement’, in respect at least, of these explosions, even if arrangements about the discontinuance of production and stockpiling must await more substantial agreements among those principally concerned." 

The reactions to this proposal from the two superpowers of the day are worth recalling. The Soviet Union said that the proposal made sense only in the context of general and complete disarmament, a linkage that is even more ambitious than the one that India gave when it rejected the treaty in 1996. 

The United States first said that the proposal was worth of "respectful attention." But Eisenhower, the president at that time, was soon persuaded by Lewis Strauss that a ban on nuclear explosions was not in the US interest. Nevertheless, the proposal, coupled with worldwide concern about the dangers of radioactive fallout, galvanized opposition to testing. It resulted in the Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963. 

India was one of the first countries to sign it. Despite the buildup of nuclear infrastructure, Nehru’s avowed opposition to nuclear weapons as well as India’s recent history of non-violent struggle for independence under Mahatma Gandhi, ensured that there was never any support for developing nuclear weapons. 

Three events mark the shift in India’s nuclear program during the early sixties. The first was the completion of a reprocessing plant at Trombay and the CIRUS research reactor, which gave India the ability to extract plutonium and thus to make nuclear weapons. The second was the death of Jawaharlal Nehru. While encouraging the development of a militarily capable nuclear infrastructure, Nehru had always opposed explicit weaponization. The third event was the first Chinese nuclear test in 1964, barely two years after India lost the border war with China. 

In hindsight, the Chinese nuclear test was the most significant since the Chinese nuclear program allowed and has continued to allow the construction of a security rationale for the Indian nuclear program. With Nehru's death the most significant political opposition to an explicit nuclear weapons program had been removed. 

Following the Chinese test, several influential individuals among the bureaucracy, political parties and intellectuals started arguing for India developing nuclear bombs. The chief arguments for developing nuclear weapons were largely based on the rationales used by the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the cold war. The "bomb lobby" argued that nuclear weapons are required to counter nuclear weapons, they guarantee security, and that they are relatively cheaper than conventional weapons and provide more destructive power. 

The elite in India also identified having a nuclear bomb as a source of international prestige. The first official policy decision shaped by this constellation of factors was at the negotiation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1967. After initial attempts to seek security assurances from the nuclear weapon states, India decided to vote against the treaty and argued against the its discriminatory aspects and pushed ahead with its nuclear program. 

 A little over a year after the NPT went into force, India and Pakistan fought their third war. During this war the US Seventh Fleet, led by the USS Enterprise, was sent into the Bay of Bengal. Henry Kissinger, Secretary of State at the time, claimed the move was designed not only to 'assist' Pakistan, but also to 'back up the Chinese'. 

For some Indian policy makers, however, the 1971 intrusion was a form of "gunboat diplomacy" – one that was possibly nuclear. This is regarded by some as a factor in the decision to conduct India’s first nuclear test. The first Indian test was conducted on May 24, 1974. At that time, in order to try and limit negative international reaction, the Indian Prime Minister termed it a "Peaceful Nuclear Explosion." At that time, of course, this term was very much in vogue. 

The U.S. was still pursuing its own series of PNEs under Project Ploughshares. The Soviet Union also had a similar program. The IAEA conducted several meetings on PNEs. Indian officials and policy makers now admit that the 1974 test was, in part, a bomb and that since then it has always been part of India's security calculus. For a variety of reasons, primarily domestic, India did not proceed with further nuclear tests after this. 

We now know that there were a couple of attempts to carry out a test in the early eighties but they were called off. However, the eighties saw the establishment of a missile program that started delivering its first products around the end of the decade. The decision to induct these missiles into the Indian armed forces was made only in the early nineties. 

Throughout this period, i.e. ever since the 1974 test, India maintained that it had demonstrated its capacity to build nuclear weapons should the need arise, but had chosen not to manufacture or deploy them. There were calls within the domestic debate, by what can be called the "bomb lobby" to proceed with these activities but they were not particularly popular. 

It is only in the mid-nineties that we see the first shifts within the debate. This happened on the occasion of the question of what to do with the NPT when it came to the end of its 25 year life in 1995. Due to the complete failure of the Nuclear Weapon States to comply with their Article VI commitments under the NPT, the Non Nuclear Weapon-States seemed to be more inclined towards a rolling or definite-period extension. 

The Nuclear Weapon-States, led by the US, forced through an indefinite extension of the NPT. This provided grounds for a renewed campaign for nuclear weapons by the Indian bomb lobby who argued that the indefinite extension signaled that nuclear weapons were going to be around forever; therefore, India should either develop nuclear weapons or settle for permanent second-class status. To develop militarily use-able nuclear weapons India had to test. 

Therefore it had to reject the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). In international forums, as well as official circles, two main arguments were used against the CTBT. First, the CTBT was no longer a step towards disarmament as had always been envisioned. Indeed, the Nuclear Weapon-States viewed it as merely a measure that would, in the words of the head of the erstwhile Arms Control and Disarmament Agency of the USA, "freeze countries on the nuclear learning curve." 

Second, the CTBT did not really constrain the weapons development programs of the Nuclear Weapon-States, especially the U.S. The U. S. had started a multi-billion dollar Science Based Stockpile Stewardship Program involving the construction of several facilities that could develop new weapons designs. 

Further, the rationale for the Stockpile Stewardship Program was to ensure the US nuclear arsenal would remain functional for the foreseeable future, thus making it clear that the U.S. was not interested in nuclear disarmament. 

India demanded that the CTBT be coupled to a time-bound program for nuclear disarmament. The Nuclear Weapon-States were completely opposed to this. Quoting these reasons, India voted against the CTBT. Despite refusing to sign the CTBT, the last two Indian Prime Ministers belonging to the center-left United Front party did not authorize nuclear tests. 

This was left to the Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The large number of tests with differing designs – a thermo-nuclear fusion weapon, a light weight fission weapon and three sub-kiloton tactical nuclear weapons – suggest that, unlike the 1974 explosion, these tests are intended to develop weapons for military purposes. 

The Indian Prime Minister also stated that a Command and Control system was in place, thus making it clear that it is possible to deploy these weapons.

 


Saturday, June 20, 2009

Taxes and Indians

And this brings us to an issue close to our hearts, or rather to our wallets. Taxation! It is time to get serious and tough about the tax policies in our country. Look at the size of our deficit. It grows every year. 

We could cut spending and we need to do that, but there is clearly a need for more revenue. We cannot and should not reduce defense spending and we cannot cut all of the middle class entitlements. We cannot cut expenses on any major fronts. 

And, we cannot continue to try and rob the rich. Tax evasion has been a major activity in our lives specifically because the government has been punitive against the rich in India. Because of this entrepreneurs are not motivated to invest into modernization of technology or Research and Development and instead try to either invest into tax-free environments or into farmland schemes. 

And who are the people who are hurt the most by this? The white collared middle class suffers the most. Instead of trying to bring down the achievers in our country, who make a lot of money; instead of trying to punish these people for working hard and succeeding; what we should do is teach others how to succeed.

We have to keep trying to motivate others to put in their hard work rather than be pacified by indictments of the rich and promises that they will be made to pay more than their fair share because they are rich. 

Of course, the government’s answer to increase revenue is simple; just raise taxes on the middle class. 

One of the reasons that India has a constant recession is because the middle class does not have any more money to give to the government. The middle class has been taxed at a confiscators rate for 55 years and is now broke. Taxes go up every year. And they go up the most on the middle class because that is where the bulk of the money is, that cannot be hidden from the government. Consider the taxes we pay on cooking gas, petrol, food, clothing, and entertainment. 

When you add it all up, is it any wonder that we are perennially broke? The average middle class family cannot afford to give their children good schooling or health because, instead of using their money to support their children; they are supporting a giant, bloated cow in New Delhi called the Government of India. 

Frankly, we need to force people to contribute to the economy, not just sit around blaming everyone and everything. We need to have a system to get the poor out of their situation, rather than glorifying and perpetuating it. Encourage them to be economically equal members of our society, rather than a collection of sycophants siding up to the bloated cow in New Delhi and looking for the biggest feeding nipple they can find. 

Finally, there is the hidden wealth in the land, the unaccounted for, untaxed “black wealth” that runs almost 50% of our economy. If that money could be brought into main stream economy, the nation will again be rich in monetary terms. The current tax system is not only archaic, but also punitive. This has spawned a huge, corrupt bureaucracy who stifles free enterprise and has the overall effect of making people cheat on the taxes; but has also given the government a weapon which it uses to silence dissent against itself, and its corruption. 

The people of this land are habituated to saving as much of their income as possible. They save in the form of land, gold, jewelry or cash, often stashed at home. All these are assets; assets that can enhance the treasury many more times, if they can be bought into the open. Then, there are the draw-backs that need to be eliminated; subsidies that cost the national exchequer huge amounts with no positive results, high import duties which inhibit rapid growth of the technology sector as well as restrict the consumer boom, and the quota system of permits and licenses which fuel the corruption of the bureaucracy. 

We can achieve a lot and make progress while the changes take place, but first we have to get rid of our image of being a poverty stricken land. We have to stop going around the world with a begging bowl in our hands. For, the people of our land do not have to beg from anybody. Our land has material wealth, intellectual wealth and the monetary resources. All that we have to do is use this to our national advantage.

Jai Hind! 

 


Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Close Encounters of the Bear Kind

Himachal is known as the abode of the Gods. 

Pristine, beautiful and one with nature, the mountains of Himachal are the most beautiful in the world. The roads are narrow and one has a breath taking view of mountain peaks that seem to touch the skies, and deep gorges that can give any person an instant vertigo. Himachal is also a sleepy place where the businesses & shops close at dusk. 

It is thus a matter of surprise for a city person to land in Dalhousie at two hours after midnight and to expect something/ someone to be around. Even the stray animals are sleeping soundly at that hour. Those who are impatient of this lazy attitude of the locals, try to find some transportation to the photo-scenic town of Khajjiar (the official Switzerland of India); and ends up hitching a ride on a milk truck; whose driver helpfully allows one to ride with him the 24 kilometers to Khajjiar for only a small fee, paid in advance. 

Sitting in that milk truck and watching the winding road under the full moon-light can be a lovely experience, till the truck grinds to a halt in the middle of nowhere. After 15 minutes of trying to get the truck to move, the driver gives up all efforts and decides to sleep under the truck; which is at a standstill right in the middle of the road. Since being hit by another speeding vehicle under the full moon’s light is a chance that one does not want to take; one gets out and ponders on the situation, especially where to sit and/or sleep till the dawn arrives. 

With no real guidance from one’s new found travel associate and the useful bit of information from mile marker stone that Khajjiar is only 06 km away; the rather adventurous idea of trekking that last few miles under the bright moonlight takes hold. A few moments of hesitation and one starts walking boldly down the road, with a deep gorge on one side and forest covered cliffs on the other. The fresh mountain air puts a spring in one’s step and rough calculations of the mind puts the destination only a two hours hike away. 

As the milk truck fades way in the back and the moonlight seems a bit dimmer, enthusiasm is replaced to a certain degree by uncertainty and a bit of slowing down in one’s steps towards the destination. The silence seems to enhance one’s hearing and the rustling of the trees in the slight wind seems as loud as a storm. 

One starts to notice small gleaming green lights dancing in trees and following along, but is unable to decide the source of these lights till one notice’s that it’s the color of eyes of the monkey(s) who are following alongside in the trees, perhaps attracted by something that one is wearing or by the hope of getting food from the insane middle-of-the-night trekker. 

 Not wanting to be bitten by a monkey (one has always heard of horror stories in the media) one reaches inside the small back pack for a weapon, anything to defend oneself from the animals of the wild; and gets hold of the spray deodorant. With the can held firmly in one hand and the mobile phone in the other, one is now fully prepared to defend oneself by spraying the attacking animals with the powerful deodorant while making them listen to the music play list at full volume. 

The pace is now faster, a bit off a trot while one tries to guess from which flank the marauding monkeys will attack. So intense is the concentration on the monkeys that one trots around a bend and almost runs into the mountain bear ambling down the road. It is hard to determine who is more surprised and afraid; the man or the bear; but there is a very silent pause as man, bear and monkey assess the situation. 

The Indian bear is unlike the tall grizzly of the North Americas. It is smaller in size, maybe five feet tall at full stretch and does not seem too bulky. But, in the moonlight night it is a villain to be overcome. Moments pass as man and beast study each other and the bear makes the first move. Maybe it just wants to hug the man or maybe shake hands, the motive is unclear, but as the bear steps near, the human high-tech weapons are brought into action. 

When loud music has no visible effect on the bear, deodorant is sprayed in the bear’s face, with the wild hope that it will have the same effect as that of pepper spray. The bear sniffs at the spray, almost as if to appreciate the perfume; and then starts sneezing violently, with accompanying loud grunts. Unable to determine, whether the bear’s grunts are from the sneezing or a sign of an impending attack one’s feet takes wings and the steadfast trekker is transformed into a long distance runner. 

Soon, the steps start to falter as the lungs gasp for air and the hymns of worship calling upon the Gods for protection are being repeated in the mind as one walks at a fast trot towards the destination. Time seems to drag and every strange sound is amplified in the dark, as the eyes seek desperately for any sigh of humans or human habitat. 

Panic is replaced by exhaustion, as the legs start to weigh a ton each and each step is an effort. Suddenly, the skies start to lighten as the sun starts to rise. Sunrise in the Himalayas is fast and before one can sing the complete national anthem, the sun is high in the sky, lighting up the awesome mountain ranges of the lower Himalayas and the majestic snow capped peaks far away on the horizon. 

As one finally straggles into the small six-shop hamlet of Khajjiar; one heaves a sigh of relief in surviving the night and close encounters of the bear kind. 

 Statutory Note: Dying of animal bites can be injurious to one’s health.

 


 

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