“The impossible dream” aka “why start-ups in India mostly fail”

 Starting up a new company for offering products or services, or both; to the market is nothing new. In these new times, concepts have changed with the rapid rise of technology and easy communications, but the basics of business remain the same as they have throughout centuries; a unique product or service, identification of customers, working partners to ensure seamless delivery and constant influx of capital.

 Start-up founders in general are people with stars in their eyes and they rarely make an effort to understand reality. An idea or a concept that they “feel” will change the way of life is rarely a “product” that can withstand the acid test of the marketplace. Majority of start-up founders are unaware that the markets that they wish to sell their goods or services in; is dependent on a variety of factors; cultural values being the most prominent, followed by acceptance of the value proposition (what will the customer get in return for his spending the money), competition in the market from similar or identical products and services, and most importantly, the financial resilience of the start-up founders.

 Most start-ups in India are technology based. And, start-up founders feel that the market will naturally absorb any and all tech based products without hesitation. That is where they make the first mistake. Technology offerings into the market require third-party validation, regardless whether it is software, hardware or system integration. Beyond the third-party validation, technologies require peer reviews, market reviews and finally customer reviews. Most Indian start-up founders refuse to get their products validated or reviewed since they believe that there will be Intellectual Property [IP] theft. This is a valid concern, but it’s a concern that can be controlled by having mechanisms in place to protect the product or service from concept to market.

 Second issue within start-ups is the lack the vision to define the market share. Before the idea can gain traction, even at test levels; the founders start the evaluation game. Evaluation game is basically a fraud, perpetuated by the financers (aka Venture capitalists) under the concept of the “greater fool”. We will come to this concept later down in the article. The potential ‘market share’ dominance of any product or service in the market will not exceed 17% of the total market on an average and 25% of the market in exceptional circumstances. And; achieving this market share requires a well-defined strategy, a great team of dedicated individuals across the required verticals (tech, admin, HR, PR, marketing, and sales). As an aside, most entrepreneurs confuse PR and marketing with sales. They are separate entities that need separate efforts and unique strategies, which interact with each other to gain the market share and thus adequate profits. Hence, it is vital for the start-up entrepreneurs to define their market share in number of customers or financial volume to be achieved within a specified time-line.

About the ‘greater fool’ theory. This theory suggests that initial investors into a product, service or financial instruments can achieve profits through the sales of over-valued assets with a purchase price drastically exceeding their intrinsic value, and the idea that those assets can later be resold later at an even higher price. In this context, one "fool" might pay for an overpriced asset, hoping that he/she can sell it to an even "greater fool" and make a profit. This only works as long as there are enough new "greater fools" willing to pay higher and higher prices for the asset. Eventually, investors can no longer deny that the price is out of touch with reality, at which point a sell-off can cause the price to drop significantly until it is closer to its fair value, which in some cases could be zero.

The greater fool theory leads to the formation of Unicorns. In today’s financial terminology, a “Unicorn” company is a private company with a valuation of at least US$1 billion. The key word here is ‘valuation’ and not turnover or value of real assets acquired. It is assumed by the founders and initial investors into the unicorn company that with a valuation of US$ 1 billion or more, their company is too big to fail. That is not always the case. Unicorn companies do fail; and the reasons can vary. The fundamental reasons for unicorns failing are; overvaluation, extremely thin profit margins, an ever increasing cost of acquisition to keep the company functioning, differences in the mindset of individual investors and institutional investors, stagnation in employee numbers, declining customer attention, and secured excessive funding without plans to utilize that funding for growth. Well-known unicorns that have failed are; Evernote (the note recording app startup), Zynga (owners of the Farmville game on Facebook), Powa Technologies that made smart-phone apps, Quibi (micro-streaming platform), and the infamous Theranos (valued at US$ 10 billion in 2015 and valued at zero in 2016). Theranos is a clear example of both; the greater fool theory and the Unicorn valuation theory. Start-up founders should study these failures in detail and understand that a unicorn status and a billion dollar evaluation does not guarantee survival in the market place. In India, there is a marketing company pretending to be a edtech start-up that is spending seven hundred rupees to earn a rupee, and has become infamous for everything from complaints of fraud, financial impropriety and a non-functional customer service.

So, how do start-ups navigate these pitfalls? 

• First and foremost, it’s necessary for the initial idea or concept to be validated by third party entities; which should include the potential financiers, technology experts and potential end customers. 
• The second step is to invest into the formation of the management team, thereby separating ownership from control. 
• Thirdly, isolate investors from the decision making process of the management team. 
• Fourth, create clearly defined share-holding to enable old investors to exit and new investors to replace them. 
• Fifth (and most important) create physical assets as the company grows. 
• Sixth, ensure that legal entities are separate from any one individual owner, enabling the start-up to grow into a company with a potentially unlimited lifespan.

Start-up founders must make it a policy to ensure that their company value is based on actual assets and not on vague ideas of evaluation. The success of the venture lies in its ability to create profits from the 2^nd year in existence and not on a fictional evaluation with major financial losses that are to be borne by the investors. Risk-taking is integral towards success. However, there is a difference in being a prudent risk-taker and a reckless one. Founders must have an exit route with a clear strategy in place, along-with a resilient business growth. Start-up founders must ensure that they have a mentor who will guide them in their initial steps and through complex issues as they grow. Without an experienced mentor, the start-up is already headed towards failure.

“We all have dreams. But in order to make dreams come into reality, it takes a huge amount of determination, dedication, self-discipline, and effort”.

 

    

 

 

 

 

How to lose credibility and create enemies! by Prof (Dr) J. Biden

 How to lose credibility and create enemies!

By Prof (Dr.) J. Biden

10/16/2022

 Creating enemies is an art in itself. This art cannot be practiced by those who believe in values, have integrity and cannot make other people’s lives miserable. For the rest (especially politicians), here is the overview:

1.     Be utterly shameless in your dealings.

2.     Political goals supersede everything else.

3.     Lie big, the bigger the lie the better the prospect of it being believed.

4.     Ignore facts to pursue the goal of your lies, i.e. to win in politics.

5.     Never be burdened with morality, ethics or empathy.

6.     Create a false personal narrative about your past. Be the hero, even as fiction.

7.     Blame every issue on others, especially the citizens of your own country.

8.     Force friendly nations to follow your dictates, even if it harms them.

9.     Be belligerent in your speech. Remember, everyone is the enemy.

10.             Insult and threaten those who you depend on for your career success when they refuse to help you. But before that; beg, grovel and kiss ass.  

11.             Refuse to believe in reality, even if it hits you in the face.

12.             Insult your dead family member’s memory for political profit.

13.             Cognitive deficiency can be beneficial. You cannot be prosecuted for what you cannot remember.

14.             Always blame Putin. Or Trump. Or both. (It doesn’t matter who).

 Have a great career. Remember, many are celebrated but very few are despised. 

 

 Disclaimer: Any resemblance to any person, dead or alive or otherwise is a pure coincidence.  

Who flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest?

 Currently, the policies of the United States of America, under President Joe Biden are an increasing concern, both within and outside the USA. Inside America, its residents are facing a high increase in food and energy prices, an overall increase in violent crime and an administration that seems to be blind or deliberately ignorant to the effects of a substantial inflation within that country. Now, according to this Forbes report Inflation may have moderated somewhat from June and July (2022), but it’s still sky-high and wrecking the purchasing power of everyday Americans. Price growth is so much uncontrolled that the Fed (Federal Reserve) is willing to increase unemployment and slow the economy even further to get inflation under control. “Willing to increase unemployment” is a key statement that is a clear indicator of the path on which USA’s domestic policies are treading.

Domestic policies of USA are of no concern to us, who are outside the country and are not affected by these issues. What is of primary concern to the world is the lack of leadership in a country that has massive quantities of nuclear weapons and from the statements made by its current President Joe Biden, an immediate willingness to use these weapons of mass destruction (WMA) against Russia and by extension against a large part of Europe, using the excuse of the defense of Ukraine.

Even a casual observer of President Biden’s public appearances that have been widely shown by the international media; can see clearly that this person suffers from cognitive decline illness, dementia and possibly Alzheimer’s disease.(Details here). It’s an open secret that Joe Biden is not capable of being in-charge of the office of the President of the United States of America, and in-fact might just be the puppet of behind-the-scenes cabal who are actually responsible for the current policies of USA.

To understand more about this accusation of a cabal being in-charge, we have to look closely at the incident of former U.S. Congress member Tulsi Gabbard exiting from the Democratic Party and her public statements on this exit. Tulsi Gabbard is not, just another politician. She is a serving battle-hardened Colonel in the US National Air Guard, has an impeccable political record, was a rising star of Joe Biden’s Democratic Party and was known to have fiercely independent views on policy matters, a trait that was celebrated by her party; till she ran afoul of the ‘elitist cabal of warmongers’, as she stated in her podcast after her exit. Gabbard additionally accused the party of "stoking anti-white racism, being contemptuous toward religion and police and driving the country closer to nuclear war".

The concept of an elitist cabal, also called as “deep state” is considered by many as a conspiracy theory, since the actual existence of such an organization cannot be easily proved. Journalist Jack Goldsmith is of the opinion that the deep state “is a real phenomenon, has long been both a threat to democratic politics and a savior of it. The problem is that it is hard to maintain its savior role without also accepting its threatening role. The two go hand in hand, and are difficult to untangle”.

The very concept of a deep state brings to mind shady politicians, unethical business persons, people of compromised media and military generals meeting secretly in isolation of opulent mansions in dark forests. But, in reality; the deep state can be considered to be a fluid entity wherein various people, operating outside the law, enter and exit this entity as demanded by circumstances; political, economic, war-profiteering, or all of these combined. Alleged members may influence policy legally, while also working illegally to influence elections, subvert democratic processes, damage a country’s economy, create emergency medical situations to override citizen’s constitutional and human rights, and control the financial status of citizens. 

This entity was first described in USA by its former President, General Dwight Eisenhower, who stated clearly in a TV address to his country that, “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes”.

Over the past 50 plus years, it has been clear that, what started as an influence by Wall Street to gain power of America’s money and politics, has meta-morphed into a uncontrolled monstrous entity made up of financial institutions, big-tech, ambitious politicians and a corporate owned media; that works together to spread false information, influence political initiatives, create instability and destabilize nations, societies and economies; with the singular goal of unchallenged supremacy over others; not only in the USA, but across the whole world. The deep state is not a new phenomenon. Throughout civilizations, a government-within-the-official government has existed in the form of unelected and/or secret advisors to the visible components to government leaders. However, over the last 30 odd years, this phenomenon has been refined into a planned activity where future leaders of the deep state are groomed to be appointed or elected to visible political positions, while working with other influencers to further the agenda of the deep state.

Here, we must recognize that individuals and institutions that make up the deep state are not restricted to any specific political philosophy or social agenda. Members of far-right organizations will have common cause with members of the radical left; in their common pursuit of unrestricted power and control of the flow of wealth to preferred partners. The leaders of such cabals are primarily extremely wealthy individuals whose focus it to be in control. Through the use of money and political influence, these leaders can and do influence constitutionally and legally formed organizations across the board; be it the military, federal / central law enforcement, state and federal governments, media and the judiciary; and not only in one country (USA) but across continents in Europe and UK, Australia and New Zealand; as also the not too wealthy countries of East Asia, Africa and South America.

The perpetual ‘war on terror’ was started by George W. Bush, a Republican Party leader, but this war has been kept ongoing by Barack Obama (Democrat), followed by Donald Trump (Republican) and currently Joe Biden (Democrat). The rise of the military-industrial complex that started wars in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq and are actively fueling the war in Ukraine, and are already planning the conflicts with China over Taiwan, and Saudi Arabia over the oil production policies of OPEC+1 (the 1 being Russia); has been strengthened with additional powers offered by the Intelligence-Contractor nexus where over 70% of intelligence gathering is done by private companies who are not answerable to the citizens through any laws or constitutional provisions of democracy, and big-tech social media corporations that data-mine information of individuals across the world, and sharing this for analysis with spy agencies of respective countries and others who will pay for it.  

For example, Google obtains big data from user-generated content on social media sites and mobile apps in order to extract actionable patterns, form conclusions about users, and act upon the information, often for the overboard purpose of advertising to users or conducting research, but also to monitor political activities, law-enforcement policies, social behavior, religious biases, educational initiatives, economic indicators, anything and everything that will help the deep state to influence citizens of specific countries. WhatsApp messaging platform, that is widely used across the world has been accused by various governments (USA & EU based) of extracting information from chats and calls for the same purposes as Google. By amassing more and more data on an ongoing basis, societies are being manipulated and influenced by the deep state. The addiction of majority of populations to their internet devices shifts their focus from real-time issues to a social media infused perfect world. Big tech not only makes huge profits from understanding people’s fears and desires, but by offering solutions to both emotions, essentially controlling the individual thought process while reducing their capacity for their self-made opinions. 

The concept, that a lawfully elected Government is in-charge of its country is outdated. Governments, both elected by the people and imposed upon the people are influenced these days by external forces as described above. Strong leaders can and do defy this influence and restrict its power; but old, physically weak and mentally unsound “leaders” can be easily manipulated; and that is the state-of-affairs in USA today.

So, who is flying over the Cuckoo’s Nest in these times? 

Disclaimer: ‘One flew over the Cuckoo’s nest’ is a 1975 American psychological comedy drama film based on the 1962 novel of the same name by Ken Kesey; which highlights the trauma of patients in a mental asylum, partly by a strict and harsh administration and partly by patients who pretend to be mentally affected. Any resemblance to people or institutions mentioned in the above article is purely coincidental.