Many Indians and Americans of Indian - origin are over-the-moon with the electoral victory of Joe Biden to become the President of the United States. These persons labor under the false assumption that the ‘Biden presidency’ will be good for India. The first false assumption being made is that future U.S. policies will be more in favor of India. This is being naive at its best, since all U.S. policies by all U.S. politicians are always in favor of the USA - first, last and every time. After the first 100 days of political honeymoon, or even sooner, the world will wake-up to the reality of ‘’Sleepy-Joe” and his presidency.
During his election campaign, Biden had put out a policy paper that aimed at ‘seeking the restoration of Kashmiri Rights’, and expressing his “disappointment towards India’s policy of implementing the NRC (National Register of Citizens) and the CAA (Citizens Amendment Act) which are both of extreme importance to our country’s security and stability.
Biden’s double (or multiple moral standards) are exposed by the fact that the US equivalent of the NRC, is the process of identifying every natural-born and immigrant resident by a unique SSN (Social Security Number) which ensures in the U.S. Govt data-bank; that persons finger-prints, face-picture and optical scan. The U.S. equivalent of the CAA is the ‘Lautenberg Amendment’ enacted in 1990 that provides fast-track immigration to persecuted minorities; the Jews, the Evangelical Christians, Ukrainian Catholics or Ukrainian Orthodox nationals from the former Soviet Union countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.This law was expanded in 2004 to include Jews, Christians, Bahai and other religious minorities from Iran.
Biden (aged 77) is not the sole influence on his party. Nancy Pelosi (aged 80) who has served as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives since 2019 and who has attracted multi-million dollars in donations to the Democratic party; had stated in July 2019 that “the US Congress continues to be concerned about how India is treating its Muslims citizens”. This pro- Muslim mindset of the two leaders will definitely influence their policy decisions towards India. Add to this the influence of their colleague Bernie Sanders (aged 79), who during his speech to the Islamic Society of North America, expressed his deep concern for the situation in Kashmir.
The influence of the younger leaders of Biden’s party are also not favorable towards India. House Representative Ilhan Omar has derided India’s policy of defending Kashmir from cross-border terrorist attacks during a U.S. Foreign Affairs Committee’s sub-committee hearing on Asia, Pacific and Non-proliferation by stating that “The only problems in Kashmir are caused by what you (India) call militants and the only people protesting to breakaway from India are all nefariously backed by Pakistan”. Omar, who was born in Somalia has been a center of controversies ranging from two marriage licenses, allegations of immigration fraud and a brief marriage to her own brother. She is deeply connected to CAIR (Council on American Islamic Relations), a U.S based Islamic advocacy group with connections to Hamas and Hezbollah, both designated terrorist groups. CAIR itself is designated as a terrorist organization by the UAE (United Arab Emirates) in 2014. Another U.S. Islamic lawmaker, Rashida Tlaib (who has ancestral ties to Palestine) introduced a resolution in the U.S. House of Representatives, criticizing the Government of India for revoking Article 370 of the Indian Constitution (which is purely an internal issue of our sovereign nation) and making unfounded accusations of human rights violations in India, with specific reference to Kashmir.
Islamist leaders of the Democratic Party are not the only U.S. lawmakers with an anti-Indian agenda. U.S. Representative Pramila Jayapal (who is ironically of Indian origin), Democratic senators Benjamin Cardin (Maryland), Tim Kaine (Virginia) and Ed Markey (Massachusetts) have consistently targeted India on various issues, many times on behalf of Islamic supporters of their constituencies, and on other times to score political brownie points. However, the ‘Political Gambit Queen’ is Vice-President elect Kamala Harris. In her criticism of India’s sovereign policies regarding Kashmir, NRC and CAA; she has clearly stated that she would like a ‘proactive intervention on-the-ground’; which effectively means that she will seek some reason or excuse to intervene in the internal affairs of our country, a dangerous mindset for a person who might well succeed Joe Biden as President in case his health fails him. Essentially, these far- left socialist ideologues which have been nothing more than an irritation during Trump’s presidency will now become serious infections that could backtrack on many India-U.S. initiatives that have been agreed upon during Barak Obama and Donald Trump’s presidencies.
Three high-priority issues will dominate the future of India - U.S. Trade relationships; trade, H-1B Visa immigration policy and strategic security around India in the Asia - Pacific region.
According to USTR (United States Trade Representative) data, the total bi-lateral trade between India and the U.S. in 2019, was over US$ 146 billion. However, during the Donald Trump presidency, the U.S. and India were not able to agree to the terms of an equitable trade-deal. In June 2019 Trump removed India from the list of countries eligible for GSP (Generalized System of Preferences) and reinstated tariff on certain Indian imports into USA. India retaliated with tariff hikes on 29 high value U.S. agricultural and industrial products. No major difference in policy can be expected from the Biden administration.
Biden has published a ‘Made in America’ plan that proposes restriction on imports of steel, cement, concrete, building materials and equipment. His focus will certainly be on strengthening American companies, even at the cost of improving bilateral trade. Biden has still not publicly stated his positions on the WTO and tariffs imposed by the U.S. Its possible that the Biden administration might want to negotiate reductions in tariff in return for concessions towards U.S. exports, an old and familiar tactic of past administrations. The possible addition of human rights and climate change issues to trade negotiations might be added irritants to future negotiations.
During his 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump had made the H-1B visa program as a key issue of his immigration agenda. His ‘Buy American, Hire American’ executive order of April 2017 restricted the process by which government agencies could hire foreign contractors. Significant changes to the H-1B visa policy prevented entry level technicians, mostly from India, from acquiring this visa. Indian info-tech industry, often accused as the prime abuser of the U.S. H-1B visa policy bore the brunt of this changes. In October, the Trump administration had issued a proposal to replace the the random selection process to procure this visa and replace it with a wage based system in which applicants would be selected based on salary pay-rates. This would prioritize the selection of H-1B registrations based on corresponding wage levels to protect the economic interests of U.S. workers.
Biden’s agenda, as per his proposal will “reform the temporary visa system for high skill specialist jobs to protect wages and workers, and then expand the number of visas offered and eliminate the limits on employment-based green cards by country, which have kept so many (Indian) families in waiting for too long”. His mention of protecting wages would mean that he might favor replacing the lottery system in favor of salary parameters, which would be the replication of Trump’s policy on this issue. Much will depend on which party gets control over the Senate and the House of Representatives, as they will differ over significant immigration reforms. Its possible that Biden might shift his focus from the H-1B visa to the Founders Visa by which foreign entrepreneurs could establish businesses in the U.S.
Originally created by the Barak Obama administration, it was called the International Entrepreneur Rule. The program grants temporary visas to start-up founders from other countries if their companies meet certain requirements, like financing from U.S. investors. To qualify entrepreneurs must own at least 15 percent of a U.S. start-up, and demonstrate the company’s growth potential, investments from qualified American investors, and “significant public benefit to the United States.” This visa proposal was rolled-back and effectively ended by the Trump administration.
Presently, India is in the center of a perfect storm in the Asia - Pacific region as the U.S. proceeds to disengage from its weary and treasury depleting war in Afghanistan, while also ensuring a pro-active military activity to counter China’s ambition in dominating the region through its Belt & Road Initiative and South China Seas aggression.
The Obama administration had nominated India as a Major Defense Partner, a status approved by the U.S. Congress and in August 2016 India signed the LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) with the United States for deeper military cooperation. This agreement allows for the military forces of each country to replenish supplies, essential spare parts and acquire services from each others facilities on a reimbursement basis.
Under the Trump administration, U.S. signed the COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) and BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spacial Cooperation); completing the initial phase of military cooperation between the two countries.
The U.S. policy regarding its over-stay in Afghanistan will be a crucial factor in its future relationships with that country’s government and by extension its relationships with Pakistan and India. India has been considered as a strategic ally of the U.S. from the times of Bill Clinton's presidency and this is not expected to change during the Biden administration. The U.S. relations with Pakistan will be determined more on Pakistan-China relationship and its effect on the Indian continent. As the U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan, its dependency on Pakistan is expected to be reduced greatly. While Pakistan embraces the China economic model more closely and uses Chinese support for aggressive military and terrorist activities against India, the Biden administration will be put at cross-roads in their foreign policy . It will be tough for Biden to justify deepening U.S. ties with Pakistan while that country is strongly allied with their biggest rival, China. Add to this the growing competition between Russia, Iran, Turkey and China to influence the politics and economic growth of Afghanistan after the U.S. withdraws from that region, and India can be clearly seen as the only stable and dependable neutral partner to peace in that area.
India's ambitions in the Asia - Pacific region are of a strategic advantage to the U.S. in its military and economic rivalry against China. Whether Biden can be influenced by this to continue building the Quad initiative and stronger military cooperation with India, will depend on many factors, but ultimately on India's stance in this region. Rather than convincing Biden and his administration officials about the advantages of cooperation with India, a pro-active policy by India in the Asia - Pacific region would induce Biden to focus on building-up his relationships with India.
India’s sole option for the near and far future to become a dominant power would be to independently engage with countries of the Asia - Pacific region on an economic agenda of investments through sharing of technology and enhanced trade policy with our neighboring countries.
Inferior people desire wealth. The mediocre class desires wealth as well as respect. But, great people desire only respect. Respect itself is considered as wealth by great people.
—Acharya Chanakya
