Geopolitics of terrorism and it’s rising threat

 October 07, 2023 can be considered as a major turning point in the world of terrorism, when Hamas attacked Israel. For the first few hours Hamas terrorists rampaged through the border territory that separates the Gaza strip from Israel and carried out atrocities against humanity through their targeting of civilians, killing over 1200 and kidnapping 248 in this initial attack. Hamas adheres to an extreme ideology of Islamic terrorism blended with Palestinian nationalism that gives a veneer of legitimacy in the Arab world while being dedicated to the destruction of Israel; with its preferred methods to achieve dominance includes rocket attacks, random shootings, kidnappings and suicide bombings. However, since Hamas has not been designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations, it receives constant funding from Qatar and Iran that allows it to build grassroots support among the Palestinians in Gaza, while constantly upgrading its military capacity.

 Going backwards in time, it was on 15 August 2021, that the Taliban marched into Kabul and took over Afghanistan as the U.S. military and its allies hastily evacuated that country. This victory of the Taliban over the great Western powers was a major morale boost every terrorist organization across the globe. Regardless of the Doha accord that was brokered by Qatar between the Taliban and USA; the consensus between all terrorist organizations is that the Taliban won a protracted 20-years war against the Western military might and most importantly that their modern military could be defeated. In the West, there is a growing consensus that Afghanistan has become a center of terrorist activities that is already affecting the neighboring regions, with terrorists’ groups having greater freedom of activities without any hindrance from the de-facto administrators of that country.  The influence of the Taliban is today an integral part of the global Islamist terrorist narrative.

 Since retaking control of Afghanistan, the Taliban has transformed the schools into religious madrassas (Islamic schools), where boys are indoctrinated by mullahs in extremist ideology that includes hatred for USA, Israel, and Europe. Former terrorists from Arab states are tasked with drilling recruits in military training and ideological instructions. Their efforts are focused on producing a new generation of well-trained and radically educated extremists. In this context, Hamas had been the first to congratulate the Taliban on their victory in 2021 and the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, in a telephone conversation with Abdul Ghani Baradar, the deputy Prime Minister of Afghanistan and a senior Taliban leader had stated that “the end of the U.S. occupation was a prelude to the demise of all occupation forces, foremost of which is the Israeli occupation of Palestine”. Coming to present times, the most surprising part of Hamas’ devastating cross-border attack was its complexity. Rarely in history has a terrorist organization been able to fight from the air, sea, and land; leaving no doubt that members of the Hamas were trained in battle tactics by various experienced terrorists and that a large number of Taliban and other Arab-origin fighters might have been part of the attackers in this operation.

 Terrorism has the power to destroy peace processes, dangerously escalate volatile situations and push countries onto the path of long and destructive wars. It is said that “Those who forget their history are condemned to repeat it.” It was an assassin’s bullet in Sarajevo that resulted in World War I and produced 40 million casualties, and it was the 3,000 persons killed in New York on Sept 11, 2001 that launched the U.S. led global war on terror in which an estimated 3.6 to 3.8 million have since perished. This current Hamas-Israel conflict already has ramifications far beyond the Middle-East. This terrorist attack should be ringing alarm bells across the world. Every country has its own enemies who seek an opportunity to exploit that country’s social and political divisiveness, civil distractions and security challenges. Fomenting domestic political violence would be one of the foremost strategies, alongwith cross-border terrorism.

 Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israel has significant repercussions on the Ukraine-Russia war. While both Russia and Ukraine are seeking political and diplomatic support from international communities, the Hamas–Israel war is taking global attention and resources away from Ukraine’s war efforts. This change of focus by the global community could lead to a diminished economic and military assistance for that country, even though the USA has reconfirmed that it will maintain military and economic support for Ukraine as its strategic priority. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was quick to condemn Hamas’s actions in an effort to clearly align his policy with that of the USA’s position of supporting Israel, but at the same time he wants to avoid alienating the Arab world, especially Saudi Arabia.

 Russia, as a part if it’s multi-polar sphere of influence policy has not condemned Hamas directly, and has blamed the policies of the USA for this current Middle-East crisis. Russia has a longstanding relationship with Hamas. By offering to serve as a mediator between Israel and the Palestinians, Russia shows that it is aligning explicitly with the global south, seeking to erode the USA led liberal world order and pushing forth the concept of a growing multi-polar world of global politics, calling for a ‘just solution’ to the Palestinian problem, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.

 The two wars of the world; Russia fighting Ukraine, and the Hamas-Israel conflict has pushed up the cost of living across the world and severely diminished the heath and well-being of people, specially those mired in poverty. With growing food insecurity, over 258 million people in 58 plus countries are in a food crisis or in a moderate to severe food insecurity. European countries are facing soaring energy prices, leading to a decline in economic growth. There is also the impact on global financial markets. European countries have suffered large losses, with East Europe affected through disrupted trade links and West Europe affected through their ownership investments. There is no doubt that Europe will feel the long-term financial impact of the war more severely than other countries.

 The Gaza-Israel conflict has already led to a tragic loss of lives and is a severe risk to the fragile peace in the middle-east. The economic repercussions of this crisis will depend on the extent and duration of the fighting, the associated geopolitical effect and the strong possibility of increased terrorist attacks. From the global economic perspective, energy security is the most important issue. The developing situation might lead to severe supply disruption, particularly if the crisis brings Iran into the war directly, or if the general unrest and terrorist attacks in Iraq reduces the oil production there. Apart from the fact that the Middle-east is a crucial supplier of energy, it is also a key shipping passageway. Whether the hostilities remain confined to Gaza and Israel, or escalates to a direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran; the result will be the same; increased cost of energy supplies, slower economic growth and higher inflation.

 Regardless of how this conflict continues, any hope for a stable Middle-East has suffered a set-back, maybe for a long time. The world is today mired in regional conflict that have negative global effects. The two ongoing wars, the US-China trade war, and the rising potential for a conflict over Taiwan, shows that the world is today in a state of constant disruptions, and that geopolitics will drive the economic outcomes across regions.

 The Republic of Bharat (India) has charted its own course during these turbulent times. Bharat has stood firm in its policy of public neutrality towards every country involved in these conflicts, either directly or though the support structure on behalf of the participants. Bharat has consistently called for the “respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states” and for “an immediate cessation of violence and hostilities”. It is constantly advising that “dialogue is the only answer to settling differences and disputes”. Bharat has ascended to the international stage as a great power without committing to any economic or military alliances that might entangle its progress. This ascent is best guaranteed through the path of peace and goodwill when surrounded by competing power centers that can be leveraged to derive benefits amid their mutual rivalries, while keeping its own interests in mind without forming any alliances to realize its geopolitical objectives. Essentially, Bharat prefers a multipolar global order that allows it to maneuver between several diverse blocs, exploiting their differences depending on the issues-at-hand, to secure gains for itself while avoiding permanent alignments with anyone.

 

References:  

https://foreignpolicy.com

https://warontherocks.com

https://www.amjmed.com

https://www.usip.org

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/

https://www.bloomberg.com/

https://carnegieendowment.org/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Changing World Order- circa 2023

An overview of the current global political situation, the instability that it is creating, and the reformation of the global world order.

In recent years, the world has witnessed a growing trend of political instability, fueled by a range of factors such as rising inequality, growing authoritarianism, and escalating geopolitical tensions. This instability is creating significant challenges for the global community, as it threatens to undermine the stability of the current global order and exacerbate global issues like climate change and international economic growth.

One of the key drivers of political instability is the rise of authoritarianism in countries around the world. From Russia and China to Turkey and Egypt, and to USA and Canada, authoritarian regimes are increasingly using their power to suppress opposition and limit civil liberties. This has created a climate of fear and uncertainty, as citizens in these countries are often unsure of their rights and the future of their democracy.

Another factor contributing to global instability is the growing economic inequality within and between countries. As the gap between the rich and poor continues to widen, many people are feeling left behind and are turning to populism and liberalism in response. This has led to the rise of political movements and parties that prioritize national interests over global cooperation, and which often espouse xenophobic or discriminatory views.

At the same time, the world is facing a growing number of geopolitical tensions, which are threatening to destabilize global politics. These include the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, tensions between China and the United States over trade and territorial disputes, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The conflict in the Middle East is a complex and multifaceted issue that has been ongoing for several decades. There are several factors that have contributed to the conflict, including historical grievances, ethnic and religious differences, geopolitical tensions, and struggles for power and control.

One of the key factors contributing to the conflict in the Middle East is the historical legacy of colonialism and imperialism in the region. During the 19th and early 20th centuries, many countries in the Middle East were colonized by European powers, which often drew arbitrary borders and imposed their own political and economic systems on the region. This created a legacy of resentment and mistrust that continues to fuel conflicts in the region.

Another factor contributing to the conflict in the Middle East is the complex mix of ethnic and religious differences that exist in the region. The Middle East is home to a diverse range of ethnic and religious groups, including Arabs, Persians, Kurds, Jews, Christians, and Muslims. These groups have different languages, cultural practices, and historical grievances, which can create tensions and conflict.

Geopolitical tensions have also contributed to the conflict in the Middle East. The region is home to some of the world's most important strategic resources, including oil and gas reserves. As a result, many powerful countries, including the United States, Russia, and China, have sought to exert their influence in the region, often through support for various regional actors and proxy conflicts. Many countries in the region have experienced political instability, civil war, and violent conflict, as various groups seek to gain or maintain control over territory and resources.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has had a significant impact on the region and the world as a whole. It has led to significant loss of life and displacement of people, as well as political and economic instability. It has also fueled the rise of extremist groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS, which have carried out acts of terrorism and violence in the region and around the world.

To address the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, there is a need for a comprehensive and coordinated approach that addresses the root causes of the conflict. This will require addressing historical grievances, promoting greater understanding and respect between different ethnic and religious groups, and finding ways to promote economic development and political stability in the region. It will also require greater cooperation between regional and global actors, to promote peace and stability and address the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the region.

The rise of these political and economic pressures is causing significant disruptions to the global order, which is leading to the need for a reformation of the global world order. This is not an easy task, as it requires addressing the underlying causes of instability and creating a new framework for cooperation that can help to address these challenges.

One of the key challenges that must be addressed in the reformation of the global world order is the need to balance national interests with global cooperation. As countries become increasingly focused on their own domestic issues, it is becoming more difficult to build consensus and cooperation on issues that affect the world as a whole. This requires a new approach to global governance, one that prioritizes collaboration with competition and recognizes the interconnections of global issues like climate change, economic growth, and security.

Another challenge that must be addressed is the need to build a more inclusive and equitable global understanding. This requires addressing the root causes of economic inequality, including the unequal distribution of resources and access to education and healthcare. It also requires addressing the systemic discrimination and prejudice that exists in many societies, including racism, sexism, and other forms of discrimination.

The reformation of the global world order must also address the need for a more effective system of international governance. This includes the need for more effective global institutions, such as the United Nations, to help coordinate international efforts on issues such as climate change, economic growth, and security. It also requires addressing the need for better regulation of global trade and financial systems, to ensure that these systems are fair and equitable for all.

To achieve this, people across the world must work to build societies that are based on the principles of equality, justice, and mutual respect. This requires building an effective global dialogue, which can help to coordinate international efforts on key issues and promote global cooperation.

To address these challenges, there is a need for a reformation of the global world order that can balance national interests with global cooperation, promote inclusivity and equity, and build more effective institutions. This will require a new approach to global governance, one that prioritizes collaboration over competition and recognizes the interconnections of global issues.

Ultimately, achieving this vision will require a shared sense of universal responsibility, one that recognizes our interconnections as a world community and works together to address the challenges we face. While the road ahead will not be easy, by working together, we can build a more stable, equitable, and just global order that can meet the challenges of the 21st and 22^nd centuries. 

 

 

 

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