Global International Relationships from 1980s to date.....

In this article, we will look at International Relationships across the world from the 1980s to date, with specific focus on the diplomatic policies of India across the world and their development.

Since the 1980s, the global geopolitical landscape has undergone significant changes, marked by the rise of China and the rapid transformation of Asia. These changes have brought about complex international relationships between Western countries, Europe, China, and Asia.

The 1980s: The Cold War Era Continues

The 1980s were marked by the continuation of the Cold War and the heightened tensions between the United States and the erstwhile Soviet Union (USSR). This period saw the proliferation of nuclear weapons, regional conflicts, and proxy wars between the two superpowers. The Western countries, Europe, and most of Asia remained firmly aligned with the United States, while India and China maintained a policy of non-alignment.

In 1989, the fall of the Berlin Wall marked the end of the Cold War and the beginning of a new era in global politics. This event paved the way for closer relations between Western countries and Europe on the one hand, and Asia on the other.

The 1990s: The Rise of Asia

The 1990s saw the emergence of Asia as a major economic powerhouse, with the rapid growth of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore. China also began to open up its economy to foreign investment, leading to significant economic growth, while India’s economic liberalisation of 1991 helped to create an economy that was market and service oriented and expanded the role for private and foreign investment.

This period also saw the establishment of closer relationships between Western countries, Europe, and Asia. The United States, in particular, sought to deepen its ties with Asia, as evidenced by the Clinton administration's "pivot to Asia" policy.

The 2000s: China's Rise and the War on Terror

The 2000s saw the rise of China as a global economic and military power. This period was marked by China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, which paved the way for its integration into the global economy. It also saw the United States launch the War on Terror in response to the September 11, 2001 attacks. This led to closer cooperation between Western countries, Europe, and Asia in the fight against terrorism.

The 2010s: Shifts in Global Power

The 2010s saw significant shifts in global power, with China emerging as a major competitor to the United States. The Obama administration continued the Clinton administration’s "pivot to Asia" policy, which helped deepen the United States' engagement with Asia. At the same time, the European Union started to face significant challenges, including debt crisis and the refugee crisis. This led to increased tensions between Western countries and Europe, particularly over issues such as immigration and economic policy.

The 2020s: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Growing Tensions

The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 2019, has had a significant impact on international relationships between Western countries, Europe, China, and Asia. The pandemic has highlighted the interdependence of the global economy and the need for closer cooperation between nations. However, the pandemic has also led to growing tensions between the United States and China, particularly over issues such as trade, intellectual property, and human rights. This has led to increased competition between the two countries, which could have significant implications for the future of global politics.

It remains to be seen how these relationships will evolve in the coming years. The United States under the Biden administration has signalled a shift towards greater cooperation and engagement with other nations, particularly in the areas of climate change and global health. However, the ongoing tensions with China and the challenges facing Europe due to the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict which could complicate these efforts.

As of today, the future of international relationships between Western countries, Europe, China, and Asia will depend on a complex mix of economic, political, and social factors. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, it is more important than ever for nations to work together to address common challenges and pursue shared goals.

India has been an important player in international diplomacy for several decades. In the period between 1995 to 2021, and has developed strong diplomatic relationships with several countries across the world, including China, Europe, USA, and also the economically weak nations.

India's Diplomatic Policy towards China

India and China share a complex relationship that has been marked by several historical and territorial disputes. Despite this, India has pursued a policy of engagement and cooperation with China. In the period between 1995 to 2021, India and China engaged in several high-level diplomatic talks, including the 2003 landmark agreement on the "Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for Settlement of the India-China Boundary Question." This agreement laid the foundation for resolving the border dispute between the two countries. However, tensions between India and China flared up in 2020 following a border clash in the Galwan Valley. This has led to a significant deterioration in the relationship between the two countries, with India adopting a more assertive stance towards China, while attempting to keep the relationship isolated from frequent open conflict, while conducting a series of diplomatic initiatives at the border level, as well as at international levels.

India's Diplomatic Policy towards Europe and the U.K.

In the period between 1995 to 2021, India and Europe engaged in several high-level diplomatic talks, including the 2004 India-EU Summit. This summit led to the adoption of the "Joint Action Plan" which aimed to deepen the relationship between India and the EU in areas such as trade, investment, and science and technology.

India has also pursued a policy of engagement with the United Kingdom, with both countries establishing a strategic partnership in 2004. In 2021, India and the U.K. signed the "Roadmap 2030," agreement which set out a comprehensive plan for deepening the bilateral relationship between the two countries in areas such as trade, defence, and technology.

India's Diplomatic Policy towards the United States

India and the United States have developed a strong strategic partnership over the past two decades. This partnership has been marked by closer cooperation in areas such as defence, trade, and energy.

In the period between 1995 to 2021, India and the United States engaged in several high-level diplomatic talks, including the 2000 "New Framework for the US-India Défense Relationship" and the 2005 "US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement." In recent years, the strategic partnership between India and the United States has continued to grow. In 2021, India and the United States signed the "US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership," which aimed to deepen the bilateral relationship between the two countries even further.

India's Diplomatic Policy towards Economically Weak Countries

India has pursued a policy of engagement and cooperation with economically weak countries across the world, particularly in the African continent. India's engagement with these countries has been guided by the principle of “South-South cooperation”, which aims to foster economic development and promote mutual cooperation among developing countries. In 2008, India and Africa signed the "New Delhi Declaration," which aimed to deepen the economic and strategic relationship between India and Africa.

India has also established several capacity-building programs in African countries, aimed at promoting human resource development and strengthening institutional capacity. These programs have included the Pan African e-Network project, which aimed to provide telemedicine and tele-education services to African countries, and the India-Africa Forum Summit 2015, which aimed to deepen the relationship between India and African nations in areas such as trade, investment, and technology.

In addition, India has also pursued a policy of engagement with Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Pacific Islands for establishing several economic and strategic partnerships with countries of these regions, including the India-CARICOM Joint Commission in 2009, which aimed to deepen the economic and strategic relationship between India and Caribbean nations; and has established several capacity-building programs in these countries, aimed at promoting human resource development and strengthening institutional capacity. These programs have included the establishment of centres of excellence in various sectors, including information technology, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals. India’s relationship with the Pacific Island nations has deepened with the establishment of the FIPIC in 2015. The recent meeting between Prime Minister Modi and the leaders of the India-Pacific Islands Developing States (PSIDS) at New York (2019) focused on the view towards building close partnership with the Pacific Island nations and work closely to advance mutually beneficial developmental goals. 

Moving forward, India's diplomatic policy will need to be guided by a mix of economic, political, and social factors. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, it is more important than ever for nations to work together to address common challenges and pursue shared goals. India's diplomatic policy will need to reflect this reality and aim to deepen the relationship between India and other nations across the world.

This brings us to the importance of the G20 forum where India is a member and has been elected to hold the Presidency of the G20 in this year 2023. The G20 group of countries, also known as the Group of Twenty, is an international forum that brings together the world's leading developed and emerging economies to discuss global economic and financial issues. The G20 consists of 19 countries and the European Union, representing around 85% of global GDP and two-thirds of the world's population.

Importance of the G20

The G20 has emerged as a key platform for international cooperation on global economic issues, providing a forum for countries to discuss and coordinate policies that can promote sustainable and inclusive growth, create jobs, and reduce poverty. The G20 has become increasingly important in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, which highlighted the need for greater international coordination and cooperation to address global economic challenges.

It plays an important role in promoting international trade and investment, ensuring financial stability, and addressing global issues such as climate change, inequality, and social inclusion. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, the G20's role in promoting global economic cooperation and ensuring economic stability has become even more crucial.

Agenda of the G20

The G20 agenda is focused on promoting sustainable and inclusive growth, creating jobs, and reducing poverty, while being committed to promoting open and fair trade, and to ensuring that the benefits of economic growth are shared by all members of society. The G20 agenda is guided by a number of principles, including the importance of cooperation and coordination, the need for inclusive and sustainable growth, and the importance of promoting economic stability and financial reform, across the world.

Policies of the G20

The G20 has implemented a number of policies which include efforts to promote investment in infrastructure, to increase access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises, and to promote the development of skills and education. It has also implemented policies to promote open and fair trade, including efforts to reduce trade barriers and to promote the development of regional and global trade agreements. It has worked to address issues related to global financial stability, including efforts to improve the regulation and supervision of financial institutions, and to promote transparency and accountability in financial markets, and has played an important role in promoting the Paris Agreement on climate change, and in supporting efforts to promote sustainable development and reduce inequality.

The presidency of the G20 is transferred from country to country on an annual basis to ensure that the organization remains inclusive, representative, and responsive to the changing needs and priorities of its members. By rotating the presidency, different regions and countries have the opportunity to lead the organization and bring their unique perspectives and priorities to the table. This helps to promote continuity and stability, while also ensuring that different countries have the opportunity to shape the agenda and priorities of the G20. This ensures that the organization's decision-making processes are more visible and transparent and helps to promote public trust in the organization and ensures that its policies and priorities are aligned with the needs and interests of its members.

During the 2016 G20 summit, which was hosted by China, the focus was on promoting innovation and sustainability, and the launch of initiatives such as the Green Finance Study Group and the Global Infrastructure Connectivity Alliance, while Japan's presidency in 2019, was focused on promoting innovation and digitalization; with the aim to “realize and promote a free and open, inclusive and sustainable, human-centered future society” and recognize the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals as being at the core of the development agenda and other global issues. 

The 2020 G20 summit, hosted by Saudi Arabia, focused on promoting global cooperation to address the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impacts, and launched initiatives such as the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator and the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). These initiatives helped to promote international cooperation and solidarity in the face of a global crisis, reflecting the unique priorities and leadership of Saudi Arabia as the host country.

India, as the host of the G20 summit in 2023 is focused on promoting the universal sense of one-ness, via the theme 'One Earth, One Family, One Future'. Essentially, this affirms the value of all life; human, animal, plant, and microorganisms, and their interconnectedness on the planet Earth and in the wider universe. The theme also spotlights LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment), with its associated, environmentally sustainable and responsible choices, both at the level of individual lifestyles as well as national development, leading to globally transformative actions resulting in a cleaner, greener and bluer future.

The period from the 1980s to the present day has seen significant changes in the international relationships between countries across the world. The emergence of Asia as a major economic and military power, and the rise of China as a global competitor to the United States, have led to complex and evolving relationships between these regions.

India's diplomatic policy towards China, Europe, the United States, and economically weak countries between 1995 to 2021 has been marked by several successes and challenges. While India has developed strong partnerships with several countries across the world, it has also faced several challenges, particularly in the areas of border disputes and trade negotiations.

India’s soft diplomacy is reflected in its international relationships. Its vision is optimistic and is based on the principles of non-violence, largely pluralistic governance and a non-threatening global leadership. The legacy of India’s culture, history and ancient philosophy has shown the world that India is a largely harmonious nation that has assimilated various different religions and ethnicities over the centuries, and has never forgotten its own culture and the philosophy of peace, and has been a stalwart champion of inter-civilizational and inter-cultural exchanges.

The current government has created innovative ideas by blending traditional soft-power elements of dialogue and mutual agreements, with the inclusiveness of the Indian diaspora in its diplomatic efforts, the global promotion of Yoga, and initiatives such as ‘Destination India’ and ‘Know India’ in advancing the nation’s national interests.

Since 2014, the Indian government under the leadership of our Prime Minister Narendra Modi has invested substantial resources to enhance India’s diplomatic capabilities. Embassies across the world have been increased, and higher levels of interactions with regional organizations like ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations), SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) and BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), has intensified cultural, economic, and diplomatic relationships with its Eastern and South Asian neighbours through the Look–East Policy, the Act–East Policy, and the Neighbourhood First Policy, all of which are focused on fostering stronger international ties which would translate into commercial and strategic benefits for India.

“There are three trips you take to India: the one you think you’re going to have; the one you actually have; and the one you live through once you go back home”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Calm, Composed and Deadly - the New War of India!

 ‘An arrow shot by an archer may or may not kill a single person; but skillful intrigue, devised by a wise man, may kill even those who are in the womb.’ [Acharya Chanakya]

Physical wars have been an inevitable part of humanity throughout ages, from the Mahabharata war to the current conflicts across the world. The need for ‘power’ and to ‘conquer’ others through aggression, violence and bloodshed has not changed since ancient times and this has always inevitably resulted in loss of lives and assets, and compromises of values, principles and ethics.

In this modern age of technological disruptions and scientific innovations, physical (open) war has mostly been replaced by covert war carried out silently. Every type of war requires that the state must be fortified, the armed forces always prepared for war, and large sections of the population trained to defend the country and themselves during the course of war. Chanakya’s Arthashastra suggests that in order to achieve peace, policy has to be shaped prudently and through diplomacy. However, he also specifies that to excel in any war; it is appropriate to use assassination, discord, spying and false propaganda to achieve victory.

“I know that today’s era is not the era for war,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, in September 2022. This is more than an advice from the former to the latter. It’s an insight into India’s strategy to conduct war through diplomacy by building friendly relationships with countries. Effectively, India’s political leadership is following the advice of Sun Tzu, the Chinese philosopher, military strategist and General in ancient China; “to fight wars without going into battle and to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

This is a necessity for India at the present moment. Our military hardware is inadequate for battle across two fronts. The government’s publicly available reports suggest that by 2030 the IAF may have only 30 fighter squadrons while the projected requirement is for 45 squadrons. Half of the current aircraft are expected to reach the end of their combat capability life between now and then, while the Government’s policy to boost domestic manufacturing of defense systems is currently sluggish at best. About 80% of Indian Army’s equipment and 60% of IAF equipment is of Russian origin. The Navy’s share of Russian equipment is 40% but it is dependent on European suppliers for many of the critical equipment used on ships. The Indian policy makers have to make a harder push towards indigenization of critical weapons systems to replaced the ageing ones. Fighter jets and their component systems, helicopters, battle tanks, the Navy’s submarines; should not dependent of foreign suppliers for technologies and spare parts. Our defense preparedness will remain lacking in required efficiency until 100% indigenization is achieved. This will require the mindset change from blind modernization, to achieving effective performance of available weapons systems.

Significant flaws have to be addressed in the areas of qualitative requirements and equipment procurement. Policy confusions from the past has forced and at times is still forcing our military to perform without full preparations, and the uncoordinated efforts of military modernization, sluggish indigenized technological advances and improvised tactics cannot make up for the structural deficiencies in our defense preparedness. The recent thrust on indigenous technology for military modernization will need almost a decade to show an optimal deterrent effect at the battle-field level, leaving the Indian military to defend our nation’s sovereignty with whatever resources that are available, inadequate as they might be. Defense modernization has to be combined with upgraded logistics and a military-industrial infrastructure that will increase our defense preparedness to the levels required for our optimal security needs. Till then, India is necessarily dependent on its international diplomacy skills to keep our adversaries; China and its puppet state Pakistan in a state of constant insecurity.

This will require a policy that will stop overt and covert attacks against India, its citizens, its interests, its friends and allies around the world, as well as to create an international environment inhospitable to our adversaries and their supporters. The strategy must emphasize that all instruments of national power; diplomatic, economic, law enforcement, financial, information dissemination, intelligence, and military; are to be called upon in combating international and domestic dangers. The policy should fit into the wider strategic concept of “defense-in-depth,” and should complement other elements including sub-strategies against weapons of mass destruction, cyber-attack, infrastructure protection, and narcotics control. It must focus on identifying and eliminating threats before they reach the borders of India. A strong preemptive component must be included in this policy, along-with a strong focus on reducing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and a defense-in-depth framework to secure our Nation.

India’s security policy must contain concentric perimeters of security or ‘security rings.’ The outermost will consist of intelligence organizations and diplomats operating overseas. Their primary objective should be to gather information that will preempt attacks on Indian soil. The next inner perimeter should be a mix of Customs, Immigration, Coast Guard and Border guards whose focus will be on the borders of India and the goods and persons crossing through. The next inner perimeter should be central and state police, Home Guard, and allied services that function within the borders of our Nation and are responsible for protecting our towns and cities. The innermost ring should be a public- private partnership between the private sector and government departments to play a joint role in the protection of critical infrastructures such as transport (land-sea-air), financial, communications (mobile, broadband, TV, radio) and power (electricity generation).

Diminish, Deny, Defend and Defeat should be the core principle.

Sun Tzu said, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, your victory will not stand in doubt.”  

China and its loyal media channels have been advertising Chinese triumphs ranging from the launch of its first super aircraft-carrier to winning in Asia, diplomatically and economically. After it infected the world with the Covid-19 virus, most countries consider China as a major threat, with increasingly negative views about its politics and aspirations. While China and its autocratic rulers focus on a top-down planning and centralized policy making approaches for their policies; we should utilize our democratic values and our assets of diversity, agility, adaptability and ambiguity towards greater advantage in our fight against foreign influences. We must convert our goals into requirements, clearly define and communicate the outcomes, give incentives to achieve these defined outcomes, and allow private industry the freedom to innovate. China has been waging global economic warfare since 1998, and to counter this aspect we have to ensure that our economic objectives are integrated into our acquisition strategy and functionality. To quote Sun Tzu, “water naturally runs from high places and hastens downwards. Thus, in war, the way to victory is to avoid what is strong and strike at what is weak.”

In our complex bureaucratic processes, we are often focused on issues that we cannot change. Instead we should, like water, follow the path of least resistance, achieving a continuous pursuit of progress, while striving for victory. 

‘If the end could be achieved by non-military methods, even by methods of intrigue, duplicity and fraud, I would not advocate an armed conflict’. [Acharya Chanakya].

 

'Expression of regret' is not an apology.

 

 

Recently the Indian Ambassador to the USA was singled out by the TSA in the USA for a full body pat down. This has violated not only the rules of diplomatic behavior but also the laws of humanity since the Ambassador was singled out just because she was wearing the traditional Indian dress of a saree. This points out towards discrimination without any doubt. Over the past two years, the Americans have insulted one former President of India; rwo Cabinet Ministers and as umpteen other Indian dignitaries. All this.while the American Ambassador to India scampers around New Delhi with a special Delhi police escort. Traditionally, Indians are a Nation that respect humanity and social norms. Americans seem to be lacking in the required values of tradition and diplomacy. The Indian humility should not be considered a weakness. Soft at heart, Indians are also strong of resolve and determination. The Indian nation must receive a full apology from the American government. An 'expression of regret' is frivolous and indicates a " high and mighty attitude" that will only bring more negativity in the Indo - US relationship.