The New QUAD World – “A partnership for Peace, or a Force against China?”

 

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad is an informal dialogue between India, Japan, the United States, and Australia that is maintained by annual summits, information exchanges, military drills, and trade meetings. 

An informal alliance of these four countries was first formed for humanitarian and aid operations after the 26 January 2004 earthquake in Indonesia, that sent deadly tsunami waves towards communities along the Indian Ocean coast-lines, killing an estimated 228,000 people in 14 countries. This earthquake was the 3^rd largest recorded in history, the largest in the 21^st century and with the longest observed duration of between 8 and 10 minutes; that majorly impacted Aceh (Indonesia), Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu (India) and Khao Lak (Thailand).

Three years later, these countries formed the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue due to the initiatives of then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan. The Quad’s first main action was conducting the Malabar Naval exercise, which involves India, Japan and the United States of America as its permanent partners. The annual Malabar exercises includes diverse activities, ranging from fighter combat operations from aircraft carriers through maritime interdiction operations, anti-submarine warfare, diving salvage operations, amphibious operations, counter-piracy operations, cross–deck helicopter landings and anti–air warfare operations.

The Quad almost failed in the forthcoming year, when the then Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd decided to exit the alliance in what was globally quoted as his desire of not wanting to be part of the group seen as an open challenge to China, which had in those days become a powerful economic partner of Australia; a story that was not factually correct.

Kevin Rudd sought to correct the record with what he called were “inconvenient truths” in the 26 March 2019 article in the Nikkei Asian Review, where he majorly blamed the ambiguity of the original proposal and the divergent interests of the countries involved, for its slow-down. Rudd’s explanation on the initial failure of Quad was reinforced by the opinions of Shyam Saran, the then Foreign Secretary of India (until 2006) and later on the personal envoy of India’s then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. As per Saran’s opinion the concept of Quad was proposed as a cooperative effort between the four countries to coordinate an emergency response to natural tragedies. It was never, from India’s perspective at least, a de–facto military alliance. Nevertheless China, and to an extent Russia, came to see it as a “containment” strategy against them. This became a challenge since neither of the four countries wanted China to determine the future of Quad, while having differing views about what, precisely, the Quad was supposed to achieve.

At this time, the then USA president George W. Bush had other regional ambitions, particularly to keep China engaged in the so called ‘six party talks’ about North Korea’s nuclear program. The US also was attempting on gather support in the UN Security Council to condemn Iran’s nuclear weapons. Antagonizing China would not have helped these broader objectives of the USA, at the time.  While the USA put its interest in Quad on the slow road, Australia had also stated in July 2007, that the quadrilateral talks was “not something that they were pursuing”. Relationships between the Quad partners were also becoming distinctly ‘unfriendly’. The Rudd government had stated that it would reverse a decision by its preceding government to sell Australian uranium to India which angered New Delhi, while Rudd’s personal visit to China angered the Japanese.

Ten years later, the strategic circumstances in the wider Indo–pacific region changed profoundly. With Abe’s return as Japan’s Prime Minister in December 2012, there was a renewed interest from Japan to revitalize the Quad. He was joined by Australia in these efforts in 2017, and USA’s decision to formally announce the end of its strategic engagement with China and replace it with a new, but not yet fully defined doctrine of engagement also saw the USA embracing the Quad with enthusiasm. Nevertheless, the Quad concept in 2019 suffered some of the same handicaps it did in 2008; including the lack of a strategic vision that articulated its substantive and practical purpose beyond the  classical counterbalancing against Beijing, its operational characteristics, as well as an agreed assessment of its likely effectiveness in deterring, or exacerbating, particular forms of Chinese geopolitical behavior.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's bilateral summit with Chinese president Xi Jinping in April 2018 reflected a degree of deliberate hedging in India's relationships with both the U.S. and China, reinforced by India's doubts as to how reliable a long-term strategic partner USA may prove to be in the future. Nuanced positions on China began to emerge in both India and Japan, reinforced by China's own desire to de-escalate historic strategic tensions with India and Japan to help offset Beijing's worsening relationship with Washington.

The Quad’s resurrection in 2017 reflected the change in attitudes in the region towards China’s growing influence. USA now considers Quad as a pivot towards focusing more on the Indo–Pacific region, mainly as a counter-force to China’s assertive actions. China has frequently asserted that the Quad group is an attempt to form an Asian NATO, though unlike the original European alliance, there is no mutual–defense pact in effect, with the emphasis being meant to deepen economic, diplomatic and academic ties among the four countries of the Quad.

The latest meeting of the Quad on Tuesday, 21 May 2022; marked an in-person gathering of the group’s leaders with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Australia’s new PM Anthony Albanese, USA President Joe Biden and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in attendance. This meeting has not been without its controversies; with the former three countries being united in their stand of supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion, especially with the sanctions against Russia, while India stands by its increasing purchases of Russian oil and gas to ensure its own energy security.

While USA President Joe Biden tried to pursue his agenda of the Ukraine–Russia conflict in his Quad speech, stating that; “Russia’s war on Ukraine is a humanitarian catastrophe that is more than a just a European issue, it’s a global issue; and the world (including India in Biden’s opinion) has to deal with it”. 

The Indian Prime Minister Modi was very clear when he stated that “Quad has made an important place for itself before the world in such a short span of time. Today, Quad’s scope has become extensive, its form effective. Our mutual trust and our determination are giving new energy and enthusiasm to democratic powers.”

The Australian PM stated that, “We will bring more resources and energies to securing our region as we enter a new and more complex phase in the Pacific strategic environment. We’ll continue to stand with you, our like-minded friends, and collectively stand for each other”, and Japan’s PM Kishida stated that “We should listen carefully to voices of the countries in the ASEAN, South Asia as well as the Pacific Island countries, so as to further advance cooperation, conducive to solving urgent issues facing the vision (for Indo Pacific Region).”

 The other issue of discomfort to USA, Japan and Australia is that of India banning free exports of its wheat to the world, while the Russia–Ukraine conflict is causing global price spikes that affect their economy adversely. 

Even with the differences in the individual foreign policies of each nation; the Quad member nations did announce the formation of the ‘Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness’ [IPMDA], the sharing of satellite data through the ‘Quad Satellite Data Portal’, the Quad Vaccine Partnership, and the Quad Fellowship program that would allow 100 students from Quad countries to go to USA to pursue graduate degrees in STEM areas. Cooperation agreements were also reached in the areas of ‘5G supplier diversification and open RAN’, and the ‘Quad Cybersecurity Partnership’.

In its joint statement, the Quad pledged to take "decisive action" to "strongly support the principles of freedom, rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty and territorial integrity, peaceful settlement of disputes without resorting to threat or use of force, any unilateral attempt to change the status quo, and freedom of navigation and overflight”, further stating that these were "essential to the peace, stability and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific region and to the world."

Despite the advances that Quad is making in working together in various areas of mutual group interests, India is focused on non-traditional security issues, which the other three, who are deeply intertwined as military partners, find difficult to understand and accept. The Quad is not a security alliance, nor will it become one. Unlike NATO, it is not a bloc of countries defined by mutual security guarantees and combined military resources. However, as China increases its military presence and assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific, the Quad must be flexible and develop a robust security agenda if it seeks to sustain itself, and its sphere of influence, in the coming years. 

 References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/who-really-killed-quad-10

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/The-Convenient-Rewriting-of-the-History-of-the-Quad

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/6partytalks

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-08-15/rudd-slams-indian-uranium-decision/640524

https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/media/pressrel/SMOR6/upload_binary/smor62.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22andrew%20robb%20india%20quadrilateral%202000s%20media%202008%22

https://www.sfgate.com/world/article/Japan-s-Abe-returns-as-prime-minister-4147889.php

https://thesouthasiantimes.info/quad-summit-who-said-what/

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2022-05-19/quad-needs-harder-edge

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pax Europa 2022

 India and Pax Europa 2022

Countries, politicians and "political analysts" of Western countries have found a new career option in criticizing India for its neutral position in the ongoing Ukraine - Russia conflict. The prime culprit in fanning the flames of war is the United States of America by providing weapons of war to Ukraine, while India has taken a clear and transparent stand that it will provide life-line equipment, medicines, medical equipment and any other material needed for humanitarian purposes, to both countries without any preconditions.

In this article we will look only at the India - Russia trade relationships, apart from the fact that India will implement only that policies that benefit the People-of-India above any other factors, and that as a country, we have a clear perspective of our global strength and the ideology to use our strength for the good of societies across the world.

Trade between the two countries is an area which has been identified for special focus by both countries. In 2020, India exported $2.87B to Russia. The main products that India exported to Russia were Packaged Medicines ($444M), Broadcasting Equipment ($235M), and Tea ($88.3M). During the last 25 years the exports of India to Russia have increased at an annualized rate of 4.14%, from $1.04B in 1995 to $2.87B in 2020.

In 2020, Russia exported $5.93B to India. The main products that Russia exported to India are Coal Briquettes ($923M), Diamonds ($684M), and Other Sea Vessels ($346M). During the last 25 years the exports of Russia to India have increased at an annualized rate of 8.69%, from $738M in 1995 to $5.93B in 2020.

Keeping the growth of bi-lateral trade, the India leadership has set a target of total trade in goods and services of US$ 30 billion each way by 2025. Both sides are working to expand the trade basket and identify new areas of trade. In 2016, Indian oil companies bought stakes in Russian companies and oilfields worth US$ 5.5 billion, and Rosneft has acquired an Indian company, ESSAR, in a deal worth US$ 13 billion. This is not only Russia’s largest investment in India, but also India’s single largest FDI (foreign direct investment). India and Russia have set up a US$ 1 billion Fund to promote mutual investment in infrastructure and technology projects.

India, Russia and other neighbouring countries are engaged in efforts to make operational the International North-South Transport Corridor which promises to propel connectivity and trade relations between the two countries. Work is in progress on a ‘Green Corridor’ to ease trade and customs formalities.

Looking ahead India and Russia have identified several new areas of cooperation. These range from deep sea exploration to building knowledge-based economies based on science and technology, innovation, robotics and artificial intelligence, focusing on infrastructure, skill development, agriculture, shipbuilding, railways, aviation and greater connectivity, especially people-to-people contacts.

In short, India is not going to endanger decades of diplomatic and financial engagement with Russia to become cheerleaders of USA or Western countries. Our Prime Minister Shri. Narendra Modi's 3-days visit to Denmark, Germany and France and the attendance of EU leadership at the 2nd India-Nordic Summit in Copenhagen, has clearly reinforced India's stand that only a peaceful resolution of any conflict and increase in bi-lateral and multi-lateral trade relationships between India and Europe, and the continued trade between India and Russia are the best road to follow for mutual prosperity and long-term peace.

जय हिन्द !

 

 

The New World Order Post Russia – Ukraine War

 

“New world order’ is a phrase that finds its origins in the 14 points speech by then USA President Woodrow Wilson in August 1918, where he enumerated the guidelines for dismantling of European empires and the creation of new nation- states in the aftermath of the first World War, that commenced in July, 1914 and ended on the 11th of November, 1918. Referred to by contemporaries as the Great War belligerents included much of Europe, Russia, the United States and Turkey, with fighting also expanding into the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia.

These 14 points included Wilson’s ideas regarding nations’ conduct of foreign policy, including freedom of the seas and free trade, and the concept of national self-determination. Most important, however, was Point 14, which called for a “general association of nations” that would offer “mutual guarantees of political independence and territorial integrity to great and small nations alike” and he was determined that the Fourteen Points would be incorporated into the peace settlements of his League of Nations  (as the association of nations was known). 

New World Order defines a period of dramatic change in the world of global politics. It is basically related to the idea of global governance particularly in the aspect of a collective effort to identify, diagnose, and tackle worldwide challenges that an individual nation or state cannot handle on its own. People around the world are politically active, interactive and aware. There is global activism against perceived oppression and it is being propelled universally without any respect for cultural or political differences, under the general principle of worldwide economic freedom.

In modern times, the phrase ‘new world order’ was first used at a press conference during the Soviet–India talks on 21^st November 1988 by the then Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi while referring to the commitment by the USSR following the Delhi Declaration on the principles of a nuclear weapons-free and non-violent world, signed between him and the General–Secretary of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev which in those days was a landmark global agreement. Gandhi’s description of new world order was that of non-violence and peaceful coexistence. However, the principle statement leading to the formation of the concept of new world order was given by Gorbachev during his speech to the UN General Assembly  on December 7, 1988. His speech included a list of ideas that would help form the new order, including strengthening the role of the UN and the active involvement of the member states. 

Gorbachev’s idea of a new world order was considered as a challenge to the dominance of USA and the leadership of its then President George HW Bush. During the Malta Conference of 1989  President Bush  proposed that the new world order would be best established only under the United Nations. He noted in a news conference that if countries of the world united and worked together, then there will be international order and the world will be more peaceful than before. However, while addressing the joint session of the U.S. Congress on 11^th September 1990, he stressed the commitment of USA to strengthen itself in order to lead the world towards a common rule-of-law.

This idea of a new world order as stated by Bush can be summarized as the offensive use of force, collective security of like-minded nations, and greater cooperation of military power. The 2019 Persian Gulf Crisis  was seen as a major contributing factor to the development and implementation of the new world order. The US would act in a way that the rest of the world would trust it during the war and thus get the automatic support of the UN. During the presidency of Bill Clinton  the new world order became more prominent, with the Progressive Caucus which is affiliated with the Democratic Party  in the USA and represents its most left–leaning faction began promoting socialism  openly.

Essentially, “new-world-order” is used to describe specific periods of global instability where significant changes in geo–politics due to armed conflict or economic crisis, lead to a reorganization of the international sociopolitical system.

The hasty withdrawal of USA from Afghanistan, the historical political and economic divisions within the European Union; aggravated by the Ukraine - Russia conflict have presented Russia and China with the opportunity to create the latest version of the new world order, which in all probability be dependent on the concept of a multi polar world order with an opposition to the concept of democracy and the western financial system, which has become weaponized due to the U.S. dollar reserve system, trade wars and systematic sanctions.

 The Ukraine–Russia conflict has given China and Russia an opportunity to advance an agenda for multi–polarity in direct opposition to the United States. In his recent visit to China, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Chinese counterpart Wang Wenbin (the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman), pledged to advance towards a ‘multi-polar, just and democratic, new world order.

The current Ukraine conflict is significant because it serves as a realistic learning experience for both China and Russia. This is a proxy war that the west is using to restrict the influence of Russia in Europe, which is apparent by the persistence of both USA and NATO countries to arm and effectively encourage Ukraine to extend its war against Russia, regardless of the probable outcome. The material aid, the weapons, the training, and the billions of dollars sent to Ukraine, a country that was till recently described as corrupt and filled with right-wing radicals, are now a daily contribution to an existential battle against the “evil policies” of Vladimir Putin. China understands that the same game-plan can be used to restrict its influence in the Taiwan predicament and is working towards reducing the power of USA in its sphere of influence, while promoting a multi-polar world along-with Russia and the BRICS nations.

 China and Russia perceive Ukraine to be a prime example of western excess; wherein the western elites, business corporations and NGOs, used the country as an unrestricted play-ground to engage in dubious business opportunities that would be criticized heavily in their own countries. Very few in the world are aware that Hunter Biden’s numerous financial scandals  are connected to Ukraine. Hunter Biden is the son of the current President  of USA, Joe Biden.  

 China is learning from the mistakes of Russia concerning the NATO expansion in Europe and is now more capable of accurately preventing a future western ‘adventure’ which might endanger its national security. The emergence of blocs like QUAD (U.S., UK, Japan, and India) and AUKUS  (Australia, UK, and the U.S.) have already shaken up geopolitics. Russia’s current demands for energy payments in rubles, which countries like Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Moldova have already accepted has threatened the pre-existing norms of international trade. The roles of China and Russia in the area of energy is very significant.

Recently, the EU which is heavily dependent on Russia for its natural gas and oil supplies, has announced that it was banning coal imports from Russia by August 2022, a process which will take several months to achieve. Coal can easily be bought elsewhere, and it doesn't account for a significant quantity of Russia's energy reserves. But oil and gas are different. Much of Europe relies on Russian supplies of oil and gas to heat homes and run their industries, and curtailing of these supplies will have a serious impact on their own economies. Additionally, all nations of the EU are not in agreement with the potential ban of import of energy from Russia. While the European Union is proposing a complete ban on oil imports from Russia by the end of 2022, Hungary is opposing this decision and demanding a longer transitional period of three to five years to comply with this policy. Slovakia and the Czech Republic are also in favor of a longer transitional period for compliance.

China produces and controls many of the minerals crucial to the global transition to green energy. As Europe suffers the consequences of a ban on Russian energy imports into EU, its transition to green energy  will be dependent on its trade engagements with China. America’s version of the new world order will be painful for Europe, with its people experiencing discomfort due to increase in prices across a range of commodities. Russia’s loss would still be China’s gain, as it still has economic opportunities to engage with Europe.

Europe’s policy to cut itself off from Russian energy supplies in an effort to cripple the Russian economy, might not have the impact that the western nations expect. If Russia is unable to sell its oil and natural gas to Europe, it can sell it to China, India and a host of other Asian nations, assuring the latter of a long-term, cheap access to its critical energy requirements. In many ways, the push for a new world order is an attempt by Russia and China against the possibility of Western military expansions in their regions.

In conclusion, there is nothing new about the possibilities of a new world order. Till date, global expectations were focused on a gradual emergence of new rules and the positions of international powers within the parameters of strategic interactions and international relations. The Ukraine conflict accelerated the formation of policies of the new world order by introducing Russia as a major player in the multi-polar conflict, which has undermined the security structure of Europe. The Ukraine conflict is much more than just restoring Russia’s influence on its former colony. It is more about a strategic repositioning by Russia to assume an international status that defines its growing power and influence. It is a direct challenge to the USA which finds itself in a difficult position to engage in a military confrontation that could hasten the end of US influence in Europe and possibly Asia as well. The current conflict in Ukraine and the potential crisis in Taiwan confirm that Russia and China are positioning themselves to fill the strategic vacuum created by the diminishing global role of the USA. The global balance of power is shifting rapidly as international and regional powers try to secure their place in the newest world order after decades of global American dominance.

 

Researched by:

Sardar Sanjay Matkar 

For FINS

[Forum for Integrated National Security]

May 2022.

Note: Links to reference articles are embedded in blue / purple.