Proportionate Response to terrorism, or overkill

On 11^th September 2001, 19 Muslim terrorists divided into four teams carried out a targeted attack against the United States of America that killed 2,977 people immediately and thousands suffered health disorders due to the toxic dust spread from the debris of the attack sites. In retaliation, USA invaded Afghanistan to hunt down the Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, who they had identified as the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks. The Afghanistan invasion by the USA and its allies led to other conflicts worldwide and the total fatalities of this 22 years War-on-Terror is estimated by the Costs of War Project to be over 4.5 million. [Let that number sink into our minds – 4.5 million dead over a period of 22 years].

Not satisfied with the invasion of Afghanistan, the USA, under then President George W. Bush began actively motivating their leadership and their allies for a military intervention in Iraq in late 2001. In the lead-up to the invasion, the United States and the United Kingdom falsely claimed that Saddam Hussein was developing weapons of mass destruction, covertly supporting al-Qaeda and that he presented a threat to his neighbours and to the world community. Throughout the years of 2001 to 2003, the Bush Administration worked to build a case for invading Iraq, and the Iraq War officially began on 20 March 2003, when the US, joined by the United Kingdom, Australia, and Poland, launched a "shock and awe" bombing campaign. Shortly following the bombing campaign, US-led forces launched a ground invasion of Iraq.

Shortly after the invasion of Iraq, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, the U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency, and the British M.I6 publicly discredited the evidence related to the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (which never existed) as well as Iraq’s alleged links to al-Qaeda. At this point George W. Bush and his co-conspirator Tony Blair (the then Prime Minister of the United Kingdom) shifted to secondary rationales for the war, such as Saddam Hussein’s human rights record, and as per GW Bush, their holy crusade to promote democracy in Iraq. There is no doubt that the vast reserves of highly pure crude oil did set the stage for the Western armies’ invasion of Iraq, greatly increasing the incentives to take over Iraq by any means possible. In this political greed for controlling the oil reserves in Iraq, the USA lost 4,507 soldiers, the UK lost 179, and other countries that comprised the ‘coalition of the unwilling’ lost 139, bringing the invading forces total to 4.825 lives sacrificed.  On the other side, the Iraqi forces lost 17,690 soldiers, and over 100,000 civilians were killed.

As the world knows, the USA and its allies had to vacate Iraq by 2011; losing men, materials and any semblance of honour, having handed the country of Iraq to a local government supported by Iran. In 2014, with the rise of the Islamic State in that region, the USA sent in 5,000 troops to “assist” the Iraqi government, however the Iraqi parliament voted to have the US military presence removed in 2020.

In an almost identical fashion, the USA vacated Afghanistan in a hurry on 30 August 2021, a withdrawal that was seen across the world in the media. In the early hours of 31 August, the Taliban (whom the US had declared as terrorists in 2001 and had tried hard to defeat for 22 years) marched unopposed into Kabul and declared that Afghanistan was finally free of the invaders.

Coming to the present war of Israel against HAMAS, Hezbollah, the Yemen Houthis and Iran itself.

The war began on 07 October 2023, when Hamas–led terrorists groups launched an attack that breached the Gaza–Israel barrier, attacking Israeli civilian communities and military bases. During this attack 1,139 Israeli and foreign nationals were killed and 251 were taken hostage and kidnapped into Gaza. In retaliation Israel invaded Gaza on 27 October 2023 and to date, their bombing campaign has killed over 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza. Exchange of strikes between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have been occurring along the Israel–Lebanon border and in Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights since 8 October 2023. It is currently the largest escalation of the Hezbollah–Israel conflict to have occurred since the 2006 Lebanon War. Significant escalation in this conflict occurred in Sept 2024 with the Hezbollah being targeted by Israeli air-strikes and targeted assassinations of Hezbollah commanders. More than 1,000 people have been killed in the last two weeks of September in Lebanon and more continue to die as Israel keeps up its assault.

So, the moot question is: How many lives being destroyed can be defined as a “proportionate response” to terrorism? The USA’s war-on-terror impacted over six million civilians, the current Israel–Hamas war will claim many thousands more. It is very clear to any geo-political observer that Israel will not stop till it runs out of money or military munitions, or both. Unlike the USA, UK or EU countries, Israel is fighting for its very existence as a country and a negotiated peace with terrorists is not on their agenda. The Israeli Prime Minister has been very clear in his recent address to the United Nations. Only the complete surrender of Hamas (and possibly Hezbollah) will bring this conflict to an end, and there might – just might – be a fractured peace.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jammu And Kashmir State Elections 2024 - a realistic perspective

The upcoming legislative elections in the state of Jammu & Kashmir are crucial to the unity, security and safety of the nation of Bharat. This election will define how the voters of J&K consider the concept of democracy. On one hand the leading party of our country, the BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party] has worked hard to ensure that most of the inequalities in the Kashmir society were removed. Since the abrogation of Articles 35A and 370 in 2019 and then-on to 2024, incidents of rioting and stone-pelting against the police and the Army dropped over 80%, mass protests against the government dropped a massive 97%, Pakistan sponsored terrorist attacks dropped 60% with 700 plus terrorists being eliminated, and civilian casualties due to terrorism dropped 50%.

For the people of Kashmir, the effects of normal life-style is now apparent. Schools have been finishing their curriculum on time, businesses have received a boost due to normalcy and tourism has increased rapidly. Over the last 5 years, improved connectivity to Kashmir has been made possible with the 272 kms long Udhampur – Srinagar – Baramulla rail link that is semi operational at this time, the Amritsar – Katra expressway (including the 13 kms long Zojila tunnel) that is now fully operational, with work in progress to upgrade the 197 kms long Jammu – Poonch Road and the 94 kms long Srinagar – Baramulla expressway.

Increasing peace and normality has allowed an increase in the air-connectivity to Kashmir and Jammu with 122 flights per day that transport 4.4 million passengers per year since 2021, an increase of 100% since 2018-19. Five years of stability and reduction in terrorism has brought the democratic aspirations of the people of J&K to the forefront. The recent elections to the Parliament of Bharat saw a sharp increase in the number of candidates, since the youth are now keen and ready to participate in the government’s decision-making process and feel the need to participate in the political process. This reflects the two major issues of the region. The first is that the youth of Kashmir understand that a strong state of Bharat is a prerequisite for progress and prosperity. The second is that every political party has to face the stark realization that for the common voters, what matters is road connectivity, uninterrupted electric supply and fresh drinking water. The people want more hospitals, schools, colleges and universities; a better infrastructure and most of all, gainful employment.

The political party that can convince the voters, that their aspirations will be fulfilled and improve their life-style, without ignoring the issues of development and democratic governance, will be the party that will gain the support of the voters. No doubt, that the current ecosystem has failed to deliver fully on the public welfare aspirations of the people of Kashmir, but it is equally true that with the projects that are underway (or have already been completed), the state is on its way towards becoming more progressive and prosperous. The budget of the state has always been heavily enriched by the Union government and post the current polls, there is no reason for this to be discontinued. The Union government and the soon to be elected state government cannot ignore the need to keep welfare and development projects on-track. Distribution of benefits to every section of society in a fair and equitable manner empowers the people and this has been already experienced by the people after the local body elections. There is no doubt that the people of J&K are eager to participate in the coming elections and to ensure their future security, safety and prosperity.

With the progress in stability ongoing in Jammu & Kashmir; many nations that are against the growth of our country and stability across all states have started taking action to destabilize this process. Pakistan, as usual, is in the forefront of increasing the terrorist’s attacks within the State of J&K. The current infiltration by Pakistan trained terrorist is an overt and clear attempt by Pakistan to support the anti-Bharat elements in the State. Prominently, these are the Abdullah and Mufti family members who still believe that they can circumvent democratic norms and return the state to its earlier version of an autocratic fiefdom of these pro-Islamic politicians. The political apparatus of both these families have declared their manifesto for the upcoming elections, where they have highlighted their desire to reimpose article 370 on the state and essentially divide the population along religious and sectarian lines. The prepoll alliance between Abdullah’s National Conference Party and the Congress Party headed by Rahul Gandhi is considered as a clear indication that the Congress Party wants to destabilize the state for any political advantage that it can achieve through this strategy.

Mukhtar Khan, an Associated Press photo-journalist whose is from Kashmir, writes a news article dated 5 April 2024 on the website of the Conversation (UK) as to how the Muslim people of Kashmir are “apprehensive” of the election process since according to him, the Union government’s decision to remove the autonomous status of J&K by abrogating Articles 35A and 370 is controversial and against the rights of the Kashmir people to enjoy a special lifestyle at the expense of the taxpayers of the entire country. The world needs to know and understand that the Kashmir after the abrogation of its autonomous status has been a growing economy, strongly standing on its own capabilities and abilities, whereas before this change, the state was dependent on subsidies offered by the Union government. When journalists like Mukhtar Khan attempt a misleading narrative the important question to ask is; whether Associated Press which is an organization owned by liberal newspapers of New York, have an agenda to spread disinformation on behalf of Pakistan?

Al–Jazeera, the government owned mouth-piece of Qatar’s ruling family, the al-Thanis’, has the shameless audacity to raise false accusations of restriction of press freedom and curtailed civil liberties in J&K; when such civil liberties, press freedom or democracy as an institution do not exist in Qatar. The al-Thani’s are well known for their support and funding of global terrorists, especially Hamas and the Taliban, and Al-Jazeera’s attempts to help Islamic terrorists’ supporters to publicize their anti-Bharat narrative, surely makes them the leading presstitutes of the world.

Reuters reporters Rupam Jain and Kanupriya Kapoor in their article of January 12, have stated without any ambiguity that “Modi’s Hindu nationalist party is counting on the minority [non-Muslim] communities vote as it pushes to take control of India's part of the Himalayan region that is hotly contested by neighboring Pakistan and has been governed almost exclusively by Muslim chief ministers”, thereby striving to create a religious divide between communities there. These two reporters further say that “For many of Jammu and Kashmir's Muslims, the BJP's policies upending decades of autonomy and privilege represent a dangerous new phase in what they see as a nationwide push to champion the rights of the Hindu majority over minority groups”. The crucial part of this statement is that Jain and Kapoor are in favor of local Muslim autonomy and privilege, instead of a democracy being availed by every section of society; many of whom were not allowed to be part of the democratic process in the era of special privileges under articles 35A and 370. Does this Reuters article highlight the policy of the United States of America to interfere and influence the elections of our sovereign country?

Rifat Fareed, whose name appears on many anti-Bharat articles published on Al-Jazeera and Deutsch Welle {DW] of Germany, regularly spreads fake news through these two main platforms while trying to appear as if he/she/it is on-ground in Srinagar, Kashmir. However, since Rifat Fareed cannot be tracked down on the internet, it can be assumed that this name is associated with Pakistan and those forces that are against stability and peace in Kashmir. It is no surprise that DW itself is so heavily compromised in favor of Islam and radical Islamic politics that it is no longer considered to be either credible or non-partisan.

The British Broadcasting Corp [BBC] in its coverage of Kashmir, is biased towards Islamic society and its politics. BBC itself has been the center of unsavory controversies for decades. Mark Thompson, the director general of the BBC, said in 2010 that,"The organization did struggle then with impartiality". Over the years the BBC has been accused of having a bias against those on the center-right of politics, with Peter Osborne of the Daily Telegraph stating that the “BBC was an attack weapon of the narrow, arrogant left-liberal elite”.  Alasdair Pinkerton analyzed the coverage of India by the BBC from India's 1947 independence from British rule till 2008 and observed a tumultuous history involving allegations of anti-India bias in the BBC's reportage, and concluded that the "BBC's coverage of South Asian geopolitics and economics showed a pervasive and hostile anti-India bias because of the BBC's alleged imperialist and neocolonialist stance."

The Kashmir elections will not be as easy or smooth event for the Government of Bharat. Many anti-Bharat forces are putting in every effort to destabilize the democratic process and prevent the voters of Jammu & Kashmir from exercising their political will to form a government of their choice. Every effort must be made by every patriot to support our government in the preservation of democratic values and the safety of our constitution.

Jai Hind.  

 

 

 

 

Sins of the Vatican “Deciphering the Complexities of the Catholic Church”

 Introduction:

Throughout history, few institutions have wielded as much influence, power, and controversy as the Catholic Church and its spiritual epicenter, the Vatican. For centuries, the Church has been a central force in shaping the course of Western civilization, guiding the faithful, inspiring devotion, and embroiling itself in scandal and intrigue. In this comprehensive exploration, "Sins of the Vatican," we embark on a journey through the tumultuous history, enduring controversies, and evolving relevance of the Catholic Church and the Vatican in the modern world.

To understand the complexities of the Catholic Church and the Vatican, we must first delve into their origins and foundations. The roots of the Church trace back to the teachings of Jesus Christ and the formation of the early Christian community in the ancient Roman Empire. Over the centuries, Christianity spread throughout the Mediterranean world, evolving into a diverse and vibrant religious movement with its own doctrines, rituals, and institutions.

Central to the story of the Catholic Church is the office of the Pope, whose authority as the successor of Saint Peter is believed to derive directly from Jesus' commission to the apostle. From the humble beginnings of the papacy in the early centuries of Christianity to its emergence as a global spiritual authority, the papal office has played a pivotal role in shaping the beliefs, practices, and governance of the Church.

Yet, alongside its spiritual mission, the Catholic Church has grappled with controversies, scandals, and challenges throughout its history. From theological disputes and political conflicts to accusations of corruption and abuse, the Church has weathered storms that have tested its integrity and credibility. The Crusades, the Inquisition, the Reformation, and the sexual abuse scandal are but a few examples of the controversies that have left indelible black marks on the legacy of the Catholic church.

One of the most never-ending controversies surrounding the Catholic Church is its relationship with power and authority. Throughout the centuries, the Church has wielded significant influence over politics, culture, and society, often blurring the lines between spiritual and temporal realms. The Holy See, as the central governing body of the Church, has played a key role in shaping Church doctrine, administering sacraments, and mediating conflicts among the faithful.

Despite the challenges and controversies that it has faced, the Catholic Church and the Vatican remain influential and relevant institutions in the modern world. As the world's largest Christian denomination, with over a billion followers worldwide, the Church continues to provide spiritual guidance, moral leadership, and social services to millions of people. It also shields immoral priests accused of sexual exploitation of children and women, attempts to cover-up it’s financial scandals and the immorality of its continuous efforts to convert poor and impoverished people across the world into Christianity.

The Vatican serves as a global diplomatic entity, engaging with governments, international organizations, and religious communities to promote peace, justice, and human rights. Through its diplomatic missions, papal encyclicals, and humanitarian efforts, on the surface, the Vatican seeks to address pressing issues such as poverty, inequality, climate change, and religious persecution on the global stage.

Yet, the Church also confronts significant challenges in the modern era, including declining membership in Western countries, cultural shifts, and internal divisions over issues such as gender equality, sexuality, and the role of women in the Church. As it navigates the complexities of the 21st century, the Catholic Church faces the imperative of adapting to changing realities while remaining faithful to its core principles and teachings.

"Sins of the Vatican" is an exploration of the Catholic Church and the Vatican that seeks to illuminate the multifaceted dimensions of an institution that has shaped the course of history and continues to influence the lives of billions of people around the world. From its humble origins in the teachings of Jesus Christ to its global presence in the modern era, the Catholic Church and the Vatican stand as symbols of faith, tradition, and criminal controversies in the human story. Through this book, we endeavor to unravel the complexities, confront the challenges, and the enduring relevance of an institution that has existed over the last two thousand years. 

 NOTE: 

The above is the introductory chapter to my next book - "Sins of the Vatican", that is still being composed and hopefully will be ready for publishing by end July 2024.  

The changing landscape of terrorism and its funding.

 In the last two years (2023 / 2024) deaths from terrorism have increased by over 22% and are now at their highest levels since 2017, though they are 23% lower than their peak in 2015. While the number of deaths increased, the number of terrorists’ incidents fell, with total attacks dropping by 22% since 2017. While there were 3,350 global terrorist attacks in 2023, Pakistan recorded the highest in any country with 490 recorded attacks. The rising number of fatalities, with a reducing number of incidents indicates that terrorism is becoming more concentrated and correspondingly lethal. There were 57 countries affected by terrorism in 2015 and 44 in 2022, which fell to 41 in 2023. The single largest terrorist attack that occurred in 2023 was the 7^th October attack by Hamas on Israel, that killed 1,200 people and was the largest single terror attack since 11 September 2001 (the 9/11 attacks). The consequences of the Hamas attack are still in progress with an estimated 26,000 Palestinian killed by the retaliatory military response by Israel, as of February 2024.

While Israel suffered the largest terrorist attack of 2023, it was Burkina Faso that has been most impacted by terrorism. 258 terrorist attacks killed over 2,000 people, accounting for nearly a quarter of the global deaths due to terrorism, surpassing Afghanistan and Iraq. Iraq had less than 100 deaths from terrorism in 2023, a massive 99% reduction in the number of deaths since their peak in 2007, and incidents falling by 90%. Afghanistan has had an 84% fall in deaths and 75% reduction in incidents since 2007. The deadliest terrorists’ groups in 2023 were the Islamic State (Daesh), the Jamat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) which is part of the Algeria based al-Qaeda, Hamas, and al-Shabaab which is based in Somalia and active in East Africa.

The Islamic State has remained the globally deadliest terrorist group for the last nine consecutive years, recording the highest number of attacks and the greatest number of deaths from terrorism. The group is still active, although its impact has been falling these past nine years. Deaths attributed to this group and its affiliates fell by 17% over the last year, the lowest since 2014, while it carried out attacks in 20 countries in 2023, a number that is reduced from 30 countries in 2020. 

Terrorism has been reducing for several years prior to 2023 with a substantial fall between 2015 to 2019, with a current high percentage increase even as the total number of attacks have fallen considerably. The number of active terrorist groups have also fallen over the past 15 years with 66 still active in 2023, compared to 141 in 2009. However, terrorist attacks are now more intensified with fewer attacks committed by fewer people, while causing a higher number of fatalities, with the death of victims rising from 1.6 per attack in 2022 to 2.5 per attack in 2023. 

Today, the primary threat of terrorism comes from individuals inside the country who are inspired the global terrorist organizations ideologies and those who seek to martyr themselves by carrying out terrorist attacks without any specific directions from a known terrorist group. Particularly, domestic violent extremism, which is motivated by religious bias, grievances against government authority and/or a mix of ideologies have grown over the last five years to become one if the most serious threats against democracies.

As the nature of the threat of terrorism and the individuals involved get more varied, the financing of terrorist activities has similarly changed over the past few years. While some organizations still send money to terrorist groups across the world, many “inspired” individuals are focusing their efforts and resources on unprotected civilian targets. ISIS and al-Qaeda related financial activity is most commonly associated with people from the Western countries, USA, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and North African countries aspiring to travel and join these organizations, while transferring money via underground channels. 

Terrorist organizations are also fast adopting to changes in technology, using virtual assets to transfer funds, and using clones of legitimate charities to collect and transfer funds globally. ISIS-K in Afghanistan remains an important and powerful affiliate due to its role as a regional hub, transferring hundreds of thousands of dollars to financial facilitators as well as providing personnel and weapons to support external operations. Apart from cash reserves, ISIS generates significant income through various illicit and criminal activities. Kidnapping for ransom and extortion provides significant amounts of money to the group, especially for key ISIS branches, such as ISIS-K and ISIS-Somalia. 

ISIS-Somalia has become one of the most important branches for ISIS financially, as it generates significant revenue for the group through extortion of local businesses and financial institutions, some of which is then transferred and distributed to other ISIS branches and networks. ISIS-Somalia has served as a financial and communication hub for the global ISIS enterprise, facilitating funds transfers to other branches and networks through mobile money platforms, cash transfers, hawala, and money laundering through businesses. ISIS has also sought to aggressively fundraise online using social media, encrypted mobile applications, online gaming platforms, and virtual asset service providers (VASPs) for fund transfers.

Al-Qaeda and its affiliate groups continue to utilize many of their long-standing methods of illicit revenue generation. According to the UN, al-Shabaab is still in a very strong financial position, having several reliable sources of income, with an estimated annual revenue of around $100 million. The group engages in systemic extortion of businesses and individuals in Somalia, leveraging its territorial control to maintain a consistent stream of revenue. Tactics include setting up checkpoints to extort vehicles and transportation of goods along supply routes as well as illegally taxing residential properties and developers of new properties in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab predominantly collects this money in cash but also uses mobile money services, money remitters, and banks to transfer funds. Recent public actions against al-Shabaab financiers have highlighted al-Shabaab’s reliance on weak government institutions and regional and international networks of financial facilitators to support the group’s activities.

The terrorist group Hizbullah is funded in large part by the Iranian government, which provides several hundred million dollars a year in direct funding. Hizbullah also engages in a range of illicit and commercial activities to supplement its income. These illicit activities range from oil smuggling and shipping and charcoal smuggling to drug and weapons trafficking. For instance, Hizbullah has been implicated in several complex illicit oil smuggling schemes which were orchestrated by, and jointly benefited, both Hizbullah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force. In one scheme, numerous companies and ships smuggled Iranian oil by blending it with Indian petroleum-products and creating counterfeit certificates of origin. The oil was then loaded onto ships owned and flagged in Liberia and Djibouti, seen as more permissive jurisdictions, to avoid scrutiny. This example demonstrates Hizbullah’s ability to use a complex web of front companies to hide, both the ownership of the vessels and the true source of the oil. Hizbullah also regularly exploits the international financial system and excels in utilizing networks of seemingly legitimate front companies to raise, launder, and move money on behalf of the group. These front companies are used to obscure the true beneficial ownership. They are used extensively in various commercial activities benefiting Hizbullah, such as real estate, import/export, construction, and luxury goods. These commercial activities generate significant income for the group and draw less scrutiny than outright illicit enterprises.

Terrorism and terrorist financing threat has evolved significantly since 2017, with terrorist organizations and violent extremist movements having shifted to a more diffuse, less hierarchical, networked structure facilitated by online communication, in which individuals may self-radicalize and become inspired by an ideology from across the globe. In the financing context, this means attacks by such radicalized individuals are smaller scale and require less outside financing, creating significant challenges for financial institutions and law enforcement looking to prevent attacks. However, terrorist organizations will still look to battle-tested methods of raising, moving, and using funds. Even as new security challenges arise, and terrorists adapt to counter-terrorism efforts, and new terrorist threats emerge around the world, we have to remain committed to keep evolving to meet new challenges and countering the next decade of terrorist threats.

 

References:

1.   Global terrorism index [GTI]

2.   Terrorism tracker

3.   Institute for Economics and Peace

4.   U.S. Dept of Justice

5.   ODNI 2023 Annual Threat Assessment

6.   International Centre for Counter-Terrorism

7.   U.S. Department of Treasury, OFAC reports

8.   FATF, Terrorist Financing Risk Assessment Guidance, (Jul. 2019)

 

 

 

Taliban of the 21st century:

 The Taliban’s agility and ability to adapt has been remarkable. Their gradual acceptance to the fact that unrestricted violence would hurt their quest for popular support, transformed into sophisticated policy planning and implementation of developmental activities. Step-by-step, they revived and re-started parts of their governance, and invented other systems through trial and error. Much of this process appears to be from the ground-up and influenced by popular demand and local experiences. Their leadership also proceeded to correct many of the flaws and shortcomings that undermined their rule in the 1990s. The ban on women and girls attending school has been removed, though most Taliban officials claim that no ban ever existed, and have publicly stated that women should have access to education. The ban on opium cultivation and its trade, which was a disaster during their earlier government times is clearly no longer in place, but the Taliban do not publicize this shift in policy and down-play the opium connection in public. Other subtle differences are their stated respect for other ethnic groups and their embrace of technology, limited as it may be. Circumstances have radically changed for the Taliban since 2001, and their policies and goals have shifted accordingly. Far from being a revolutionary movement of the 1990s, prior to 2022, they considered themselves as a deposed government and the main armed opposition fighting the pro-Western government supported by foreign soldiers. The Taliban leadership itself has also been transformed. Circumstances have forced them to travel outside their villages and also outside the country at times, and they have learned from their travels.

The simple fighters of yester-years are worldly trained politicians today; transforming themselves from being traditional conservatives into modern Islamist's. They have also become better at managing external perceptions, having realized that appearing as educated people is an advantage and it is helpful in manipulating the media. They have become sophisticated; with professional-standard glossy publications, a website in several languages, videos made of high-quality production and highly capable spokesmen that respond rapidly to questions and criticism across social media platforms like Twitter, Facebook and WhatsApp; even though what is publicized on the social media is vastly different from the ground reality in Afghanistan. What exactly do the changes in Taliban policy means for Afghans and the future of Afghanistan will depend on the critical study and analysis of their on-ground actions. The Taliban are led by the Emir ul-Mumenin (leader of the faithful), currently Mullah Haibatullah Akhunzada. The scope and complexity of this position varies according to the person who occupies it, and the current Emir’s functions are more spiritual and political, than as an operational military commander. He is assisted by two deputies, as well as the leadership shura. At the provincial level there is a governor, appointed officially by the leadership shura. The Taliban now has a quasi–professional core of individuals who have served for several years across multiple provinces. These governors and local councils / commissions are not completely ‘civilian’, and the governors may serve in military capacity to varying degrees depending on the context and broader requirements of the office for local governance. Provincial ministers are appointed by the leadership of the relevant council, viz: education, health and finance; in consultation with the governor of the province. The system has grown more comprehensive over the years, with a dozen committees, some with multiple departments covering a multitude of issues. Significant autonomy is granted to province and district level officials within the overall framework of the policy.

This flexibility is intentional, in order to accommodate different views and reducing dissent to as little as possible. It also helps to prevent the Taliban from splitting into different factions; since local politics and preferences based on history play a significant role in governance. Some areas might have a higher demand for health services than others, while others might want to give priority to education. The extent to which services have been available in the past also matters.  Areas where customary structures of governance are influential and respected, are in a stronger position to bargain for amenities from the Taliban officials. Individual relationships also influence policies, although the Taliban does not generally welcome individual opinions, since such interactions could be perceived as corruption.  In practice however, the Taliban rely on relationships in every aspect of their governance, due to a lack of trust in general and the widespread suspicion of their motives by the locals and the international interlocutors. Arrangements between the Taliban and civilians are based on a mutual yet unequal exchange, leading to an informal social contract that renders to the Taliban a legitimate authority, and strengthening its credibility as an acceptable form of government; even though it is not a government based on the choice and free will of the people of Afghanistan.

 

Geopolitics of terrorism and it’s rising threat

 October 07, 2023 can be considered as a major turning point in the world of terrorism, when Hamas attacked Israel. For the first few hours Hamas terrorists rampaged through the border territory that separates the Gaza strip from Israel and carried out atrocities against humanity through their targeting of civilians, killing over 1200 and kidnapping 248 in this initial attack. Hamas adheres to an extreme ideology of Islamic terrorism blended with Palestinian nationalism that gives a veneer of legitimacy in the Arab world while being dedicated to the destruction of Israel; with its preferred methods to achieve dominance includes rocket attacks, random shootings, kidnappings and suicide bombings. However, since Hamas has not been designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations, it receives constant funding from Qatar and Iran that allows it to build grassroots support among the Palestinians in Gaza, while constantly upgrading its military capacity.

 Going backwards in time, it was on 15 August 2021, that the Taliban marched into Kabul and took over Afghanistan as the U.S. military and its allies hastily evacuated that country. This victory of the Taliban over the great Western powers was a major morale boost every terrorist organization across the globe. Regardless of the Doha accord that was brokered by Qatar between the Taliban and USA; the consensus between all terrorist organizations is that the Taliban won a protracted 20-years war against the Western military might and most importantly that their modern military could be defeated. In the West, there is a growing consensus that Afghanistan has become a center of terrorist activities that is already affecting the neighboring regions, with terrorists’ groups having greater freedom of activities without any hindrance from the de-facto administrators of that country.  The influence of the Taliban is today an integral part of the global Islamist terrorist narrative.

 Since retaking control of Afghanistan, the Taliban has transformed the schools into religious madrassas (Islamic schools), where boys are indoctrinated by mullahs in extremist ideology that includes hatred for USA, Israel, and Europe. Former terrorists from Arab states are tasked with drilling recruits in military training and ideological instructions. Their efforts are focused on producing a new generation of well-trained and radically educated extremists. In this context, Hamas had been the first to congratulate the Taliban on their victory in 2021 and the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, in a telephone conversation with Abdul Ghani Baradar, the deputy Prime Minister of Afghanistan and a senior Taliban leader had stated that “the end of the U.S. occupation was a prelude to the demise of all occupation forces, foremost of which is the Israeli occupation of Palestine”. Coming to present times, the most surprising part of Hamas’ devastating cross-border attack was its complexity. Rarely in history has a terrorist organization been able to fight from the air, sea, and land; leaving no doubt that members of the Hamas were trained in battle tactics by various experienced terrorists and that a large number of Taliban and other Arab-origin fighters might have been part of the attackers in this operation.

 Terrorism has the power to destroy peace processes, dangerously escalate volatile situations and push countries onto the path of long and destructive wars. It is said that “Those who forget their history are condemned to repeat it.” It was an assassin’s bullet in Sarajevo that resulted in World War I and produced 40 million casualties, and it was the 3,000 persons killed in New York on Sept 11, 2001 that launched the U.S. led global war on terror in which an estimated 3.6 to 3.8 million have since perished. This current Hamas-Israel conflict already has ramifications far beyond the Middle-East. This terrorist attack should be ringing alarm bells across the world. Every country has its own enemies who seek an opportunity to exploit that country’s social and political divisiveness, civil distractions and security challenges. Fomenting domestic political violence would be one of the foremost strategies, alongwith cross-border terrorism.

 Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israel has significant repercussions on the Ukraine-Russia war. While both Russia and Ukraine are seeking political and diplomatic support from international communities, the Hamas–Israel war is taking global attention and resources away from Ukraine’s war efforts. This change of focus by the global community could lead to a diminished economic and military assistance for that country, even though the USA has reconfirmed that it will maintain military and economic support for Ukraine as its strategic priority. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was quick to condemn Hamas’s actions in an effort to clearly align his policy with that of the USA’s position of supporting Israel, but at the same time he wants to avoid alienating the Arab world, especially Saudi Arabia.

 Russia, as a part if it’s multi-polar sphere of influence policy has not condemned Hamas directly, and has blamed the policies of the USA for this current Middle-East crisis. Russia has a longstanding relationship with Hamas. By offering to serve as a mediator between Israel and the Palestinians, Russia shows that it is aligning explicitly with the global south, seeking to erode the USA led liberal world order and pushing forth the concept of a growing multi-polar world of global politics, calling for a ‘just solution’ to the Palestinian problem, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.

 The two wars of the world; Russia fighting Ukraine, and the Hamas-Israel conflict has pushed up the cost of living across the world and severely diminished the heath and well-being of people, specially those mired in poverty. With growing food insecurity, over 258 million people in 58 plus countries are in a food crisis or in a moderate to severe food insecurity. European countries are facing soaring energy prices, leading to a decline in economic growth. There is also the impact on global financial markets. European countries have suffered large losses, with East Europe affected through disrupted trade links and West Europe affected through their ownership investments. There is no doubt that Europe will feel the long-term financial impact of the war more severely than other countries.

 The Gaza-Israel conflict has already led to a tragic loss of lives and is a severe risk to the fragile peace in the middle-east. The economic repercussions of this crisis will depend on the extent and duration of the fighting, the associated geopolitical effect and the strong possibility of increased terrorist attacks. From the global economic perspective, energy security is the most important issue. The developing situation might lead to severe supply disruption, particularly if the crisis brings Iran into the war directly, or if the general unrest and terrorist attacks in Iraq reduces the oil production there. Apart from the fact that the Middle-east is a crucial supplier of energy, it is also a key shipping passageway. Whether the hostilities remain confined to Gaza and Israel, or escalates to a direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran; the result will be the same; increased cost of energy supplies, slower economic growth and higher inflation.

 Regardless of how this conflict continues, any hope for a stable Middle-East has suffered a set-back, maybe for a long time. The world is today mired in regional conflict that have negative global effects. The two ongoing wars, the US-China trade war, and the rising potential for a conflict over Taiwan, shows that the world is today in a state of constant disruptions, and that geopolitics will drive the economic outcomes across regions.

 The Republic of Bharat (India) has charted its own course during these turbulent times. Bharat has stood firm in its policy of public neutrality towards every country involved in these conflicts, either directly or though the support structure on behalf of the participants. Bharat has consistently called for the “respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states” and for “an immediate cessation of violence and hostilities”. It is constantly advising that “dialogue is the only answer to settling differences and disputes”. Bharat has ascended to the international stage as a great power without committing to any economic or military alliances that might entangle its progress. This ascent is best guaranteed through the path of peace and goodwill when surrounded by competing power centers that can be leveraged to derive benefits amid their mutual rivalries, while keeping its own interests in mind without forming any alliances to realize its geopolitical objectives. Essentially, Bharat prefers a multipolar global order that allows it to maneuver between several diverse blocs, exploiting their differences depending on the issues-at-hand, to secure gains for itself while avoiding permanent alignments with anyone.

 

References:  

https://foreignpolicy.com

https://warontherocks.com

https://www.amjmed.com

https://www.usip.org

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/

https://www.bloomberg.com/

https://carnegieendowment.org/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Israeli intelligence failure – or a deep rooted conspiracy?

On Saturday 07^th October 2023, the terrorist group Hamas based out of the Gaza strip caught the State of Israel by complete surprise, breaking through an electronically powered physical fence that is supposed to have cost over a billion US dollars in its creation, to safe-guard the security of Israel. The fence was breached at multiple sites and the entire concept of its existence crashed, along-with the credibility of the Israeli intelligence services.

Three issues are glaring prominent in this attack. The 1^st is the speed, training and focus of the Hamas terrorists when they broke through the fence, invaded Israeli territories, captured and transported hostages back to Gaza while indiscriminately killing civilians. The 2^nd issue is the lack of an immediate response by the Israeli Defense Forces. It took the IDF over six hours to enter this battle-field, stripping away the much-publicized fantasy of the IDF being a professionally trained and highly skilled, mobile fighting force. The 3^rd issue was the global reputation of the Israeli intelligence services. “Mossad”, the civilian–military intelligence and anti-terrorist strike force; the “Military Intelligence Directorate” which is to supposed to inform the Israeli government and IDF with intelligence warnings and alerts on a daily basis; the "Shin bet", the organization charged with maintaining internal security, including in the Israeli-occupied territories; the “Combat Intelligence Collection Corps” which is the newest of the IDF GOC Army Headquarters' five corps, created in April 2000 and tasked with collecting combat intelligence; and “Lekem” (Lishka le-Kishrei Mada) which is tasked to collect scientific and technical intelligence abroad from both open and covert sources, and was supposed to have been disbanded in 1986, but never confirmed to have been so.  

All five of these intelligence services seem to have failed their primary purpose of keeping their government informed of the activities of their immediate enemy, the State of Palestine and its armed factions Hamas (specifically it’s Qassam brigades), Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Palestinian Liberation Front, as-Sa’iqa, Fatah al-Intifada, Popular Front for Liberation of Palestine; etc.

Hamas, which started the current attack on Israel, was created in 1987 as an off-shoot of the Muslim Brotherhood’s political movement. The Muslim Brotherhood identifies itself as a Sunni Islamist organization that was founded in Egypt in 1928, by Hassan al-Banna, and Islamic scholar and school teacher. Hamas has been financed regularly by Iran and Qatar, two counties which are seemingly at odds with each other the former being Shi’a and the latter being Sunni. Yet, both have funded Hamas and other terrorist organizations due to their common hatred against Israel.

Iran has had a complex relationship with Israel. This relationship has changed from military and economic close cooperation before the Iranian revolution of 1979, to complete hostility, with Iran supporting Hamas and the Islamic Jihad for Palestine in Gaza, and the Hezbollah in Lebanon. Before the 1979 revolution, when most Arab countries in Middle-East were in opposition to the existence of Israel, the then Shah of Iran supported Israeli settlers in what was considered as Palestine territories.  The Shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi recognized Israel as a sovereign state in 1950. Economic, political and military cooperation between these two countries expanded rapidly while tensions between Israel and the Arab countries escalated in the 1960s and 1970s.

Before the Shah of Iran was deposed in 1979, Israel had undertaken a multi-billion-dollar project to sell advanced, surface-to-surface missiles to Iran. This project, code named ‘Flower’, was one of the six oil-for-arms contract signed in Tehran in April 1977 by Shah Reza Pahlavi and Shimon Peres, the then Defense Minister of Israel. The Flower project, involved the production of missiles with warheads weighing 750 Kgs and a tactical range of 480 kms. This joint missile program envisaged shipping the missiles from Israel to Iran, in the form of components for assembly and testing. Operation Flower was just one of the many joint military projects between the two countries. According to de-classified documents available in the USA’s Library of Congress, other projects included advanced radar systems, converting aircraft for maritime surveillance purposes, and enhancing the missiles program to enable their launch from submarines.

Even after 1979, when the Shah of Iran was deposed by the Islamic Revolution, the Iran-Israel military cooperation continued discreetly with Israel supplying arms, ammunition and military aid to Iran during its 10-year war against Saddam Hussain’s Iraq, in the 1980s. Various sources has estimated that, with the tactic approval of the USA, Iran was provided military aid of approximately US$ 2 billion in that period. The clandestine cooperation did not stop there. During the Iran-Contra affair, Israel played a crucial role as a facilitator of arms shipments from USA to Iran in 1985 and 1986.

All this came to an end when Yasser Arafat, the then PLO Chairman signed the Oslo Accords on 13 September 1993, with Israel Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, in the presence of the then President of USA, Bill Clinton. This prompted the Ayatollahs of Iran to begin their campaign to create new armed Islamist groups in Palestine and Lebanon, while increasing their support to existing ones. While Iran is estimated to be funding US$ 100 million annually to Hamas, it has also publicly acknowledged that it is also supplying the rockets used by Hamas to target Israel. In 2012, Iran’s military commanders disclosed that they had provided over 50 thousand rockets and over half a million anti-tank missiles to militants in Gaza; alongwith the technology to manufacture the Fajr-5 missiles in Gaza itself.

It seems hard to believe that none of this was noted seriously by the five intelligence agencies of Israel.

Now, let us look at the role played by Qatar in their support for Hamas. Throughout the last 60 odd years, Qatar has facilitated and funded radical Islamist ideologies and provided a safe haven to their leaders inside Qatar. The entire leadership of Hamas are permanent residents of Qatar, lavishly hosted and richly funded by Qatar’s ruling al-Thani family. Beyond this, Qatar is funding an assertive Islamist social environment in the West through its investment in Islamic education and academic fields in the UK, funding of British schools, universities, community centers and Islamic centers; essentially funding Islamic extremism. Qatar is an unspoken enemy of Bharat [India] through its acts of liberally funding the Pakistani Army, which in turn funds terrorism in Kashmir. Other terrorists that Qatar has openly supported are the Taliban, the Muslim Brotherhood, certain al-Qaeda affiliates and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

With only 350,000 nationals; but with constant access to enormous wealth through its natural gas reserves, Qatar seeks to exercise an international influence that is disproportionate to its geographical size, not only in the Middle-East, but across the world. Qatar’s protection from any global action is insured by its “investments” in the political parties and politicians in the UK, the USA and the EU. Governments of these countries, regardless of which political party is in power, seek to maintain good relationships with Qatar in order to benefit from its huge energy reserves, to sell defense equipment to it, and to attract Qatari investment into key infrastructure and energy projects. Bharat [India] and its ruling politicians are no exception. They allowed an investment of one billion US dollars by the Qatar Investment Authority into Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Retail Ventures. Beyond this, Qatar has made investments into media houses, real estate, infrastructure, financial institutions and investment funds. So, when thousands of Indian origin construction workers are killed in Qatar under inhuman working conditions or very soon, eight retired officers of our navy are hanged at the whim of Qatar’s ruling family, do not be shocked. According to our Government and our bureaucracy, sacrificing a few Indian lives and our honor and price for the billions in investments; is just the price of doing business with Qatar.  

Qatar’s ruling family, the al-Thani’s have perfected the art of being on all sides of a conflict and supporting everyone against each other. While funding the Hamas and allowing its leaders to enjoy residency in Qatar, it has positioned itself to be a key negotiator for the release of Israeli hostages, and at the same time preserved its close security and economic ties with the USA. Qatar hosts the forward HQs of the U.S. military’s Central Command at the al-Udeid Air base in Doha. This gives Qatar the safety shield that it needs from any military attacks from its neighbors while being publicly praised by USA as its major non-NATO ally, critically important to U.S. foreign policy in the region. This support from USA comes at a cost of tens of millions of dollars that Qatar spends though its lobbyists in Washington DC, and influences the U.S. lawmakers through investments in law-makers constituencies, contributing to their election fund-raising, sponsored visits to Qatar (Minnesota Congress woman Ilhan Omar’s visit to the soccer World cup was fully funded by Qatar) and has been accused of bribing this same Congress woman in exchange for sensitive intelligence information and to influence U.S. policy in its favor.

When caught in illegal acts, Qatar falls back on their policy of threatening to restrict energy supplies to countries that accuse it of corrupt and unethical practices.

The attack on Israel by Hamas has to be considered as a geo-political strategy by Iran and Qatar, working to destabilize the Middle-East peace process for their own gains. The current conflict has successfully stalled and maybe destroyed the Israel–Saudi Arabi Normalization Agreement, allowed Iran to gain prominence in the region’s politics, while putting those Arab states that have signed peace agreements with Israel into a difficult position whereby while trying to honor these agreements they have to deal with the unrest on the ground by their Muslim citizens who are majorly anti-Israel. This works in the favor of Qatar who is opposed to the global influence of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, who have accused Qatar of various crimes in the past. The Hamas offensive has encouraged smaller terrorist groups to attack U.S forces in the region, with rocket attacks on American military installations in Iraq and Syria.

If the current Hamas–Israel expands to become a U.S–Iran conflict, even through the use of proxies, it will affect global economy. Europe which is already under economic recessions due to the Ukraine–Russia war, will be adversely impacted as energy supplies from the Gulf would become scarce. The U.S. economy might also tip into severe recession and higher inflation, leading to a domino effect on other economies of the world that are tied to the U.S. economy. Scarcity of energy resources will mean higher logistics costs, increased production costs and reduced consumer spending.

The first question to be asked is this. At what point will USA, UK and the EU decide to abandon their support to Qatar to stop its funding of terrorists across the world, and try to normalize ties with Iran? Unless the influence of Qatar is removed from the geo-political equation, peace or even a restless peace will not materialize.

Therefore, the unspoken question has to be asked. Did Israel and its allies have complete knowledge of the impending Hamas attack on Israel, but decided to let it happen anyway for a greater geo-political strategy? The other line of thought is that, prior to this Hamas terrorist attack of 7^th October, the politics of Israel was deeply divided. Their current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was on trial for corruption, and was being tried in their Court of Law for fraud, breach of trust, and accepting bribes. Three of his former close confidants have turned State’s evidence and are testifying against him. The current war is a welcome diversion from political problems, even if it has caused the killings of thousands on both sides. So, the moot question arises. Did some interested parties in Israel manipulate intelligence information for party political gains, not realizing that what they might have expected to be nothing more than ‘containable violence’, actually turned out to be a full-scale invasion?

While many will assume these questions to be in the area of an ‘unbelievable conspiracy’, the relationships of the past between the various players in the middle-east, the current relationships between Islamic nations and their fundamentalists, the issues faced by Israeli politicians in their own country, and their singular relationships with the USA; all of these will determine the outcome of the present Hamas–Israel conflict.