The New World Order Post Russia – Ukraine War

 

“New world order’ is a phrase that finds its origins in the 14 points speech by then USA President Woodrow Wilson in August 1918, where he enumerated the guidelines for dismantling of European empires and the creation of new nation- states in the aftermath of the first World War, that commenced in July, 1914 and ended on the 11th of November, 1918. Referred to by contemporaries as the Great War belligerents included much of Europe, Russia, the United States and Turkey, with fighting also expanding into the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia.

These 14 points included Wilson’s ideas regarding nations’ conduct of foreign policy, including freedom of the seas and free trade, and the concept of national self-determination. Most important, however, was Point 14, which called for a “general association of nations” that would offer “mutual guarantees of political independence and territorial integrity to great and small nations alike” and he was determined that the Fourteen Points would be incorporated into the peace settlements of his League of Nations  (as the association of nations was known). 

New World Order defines a period of dramatic change in the world of global politics. It is basically related to the idea of global governance particularly in the aspect of a collective effort to identify, diagnose, and tackle worldwide challenges that an individual nation or state cannot handle on its own. People around the world are politically active, interactive and aware. There is global activism against perceived oppression and it is being propelled universally without any respect for cultural or political differences, under the general principle of worldwide economic freedom.

In modern times, the phrase ‘new world order’ was first used at a press conference during the Soviet–India talks on 21^st November 1988 by the then Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi while referring to the commitment by the USSR following the Delhi Declaration on the principles of a nuclear weapons-free and non-violent world, signed between him and the General–Secretary of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev which in those days was a landmark global agreement. Gandhi’s description of new world order was that of non-violence and peaceful coexistence. However, the principle statement leading to the formation of the concept of new world order was given by Gorbachev during his speech to the UN General Assembly  on December 7, 1988. His speech included a list of ideas that would help form the new order, including strengthening the role of the UN and the active involvement of the member states. 

Gorbachev’s idea of a new world order was considered as a challenge to the dominance of USA and the leadership of its then President George HW Bush. During the Malta Conference of 1989  President Bush  proposed that the new world order would be best established only under the United Nations. He noted in a news conference that if countries of the world united and worked together, then there will be international order and the world will be more peaceful than before. However, while addressing the joint session of the U.S. Congress on 11^th September 1990, he stressed the commitment of USA to strengthen itself in order to lead the world towards a common rule-of-law.

This idea of a new world order as stated by Bush can be summarized as the offensive use of force, collective security of like-minded nations, and greater cooperation of military power. The 2019 Persian Gulf Crisis  was seen as a major contributing factor to the development and implementation of the new world order. The US would act in a way that the rest of the world would trust it during the war and thus get the automatic support of the UN. During the presidency of Bill Clinton  the new world order became more prominent, with the Progressive Caucus which is affiliated with the Democratic Party  in the USA and represents its most left–leaning faction began promoting socialism  openly.

Essentially, “new-world-order” is used to describe specific periods of global instability where significant changes in geo–politics due to armed conflict or economic crisis, lead to a reorganization of the international sociopolitical system.

The hasty withdrawal of USA from Afghanistan, the historical political and economic divisions within the European Union; aggravated by the Ukraine - Russia conflict have presented Russia and China with the opportunity to create the latest version of the new world order, which in all probability be dependent on the concept of a multi polar world order with an opposition to the concept of democracy and the western financial system, which has become weaponized due to the U.S. dollar reserve system, trade wars and systematic sanctions.

 The Ukraine–Russia conflict has given China and Russia an opportunity to advance an agenda for multi–polarity in direct opposition to the United States. In his recent visit to China, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Chinese counterpart Wang Wenbin (the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman), pledged to advance towards a ‘multi-polar, just and democratic, new world order.

The current Ukraine conflict is significant because it serves as a realistic learning experience for both China and Russia. This is a proxy war that the west is using to restrict the influence of Russia in Europe, which is apparent by the persistence of both USA and NATO countries to arm and effectively encourage Ukraine to extend its war against Russia, regardless of the probable outcome. The material aid, the weapons, the training, and the billions of dollars sent to Ukraine, a country that was till recently described as corrupt and filled with right-wing radicals, are now a daily contribution to an existential battle against the “evil policies” of Vladimir Putin. China understands that the same game-plan can be used to restrict its influence in the Taiwan predicament and is working towards reducing the power of USA in its sphere of influence, while promoting a multi-polar world along-with Russia and the BRICS nations.

 China and Russia perceive Ukraine to be a prime example of western excess; wherein the western elites, business corporations and NGOs, used the country as an unrestricted play-ground to engage in dubious business opportunities that would be criticized heavily in their own countries. Very few in the world are aware that Hunter Biden’s numerous financial scandals  are connected to Ukraine. Hunter Biden is the son of the current President  of USA, Joe Biden.  

 China is learning from the mistakes of Russia concerning the NATO expansion in Europe and is now more capable of accurately preventing a future western ‘adventure’ which might endanger its national security. The emergence of blocs like QUAD (U.S., UK, Japan, and India) and AUKUS  (Australia, UK, and the U.S.) have already shaken up geopolitics. Russia’s current demands for energy payments in rubles, which countries like Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Moldova have already accepted has threatened the pre-existing norms of international trade. The roles of China and Russia in the area of energy is very significant.

Recently, the EU which is heavily dependent on Russia for its natural gas and oil supplies, has announced that it was banning coal imports from Russia by August 2022, a process which will take several months to achieve. Coal can easily be bought elsewhere, and it doesn't account for a significant quantity of Russia's energy reserves. But oil and gas are different. Much of Europe relies on Russian supplies of oil and gas to heat homes and run their industries, and curtailing of these supplies will have a serious impact on their own economies. Additionally, all nations of the EU are not in agreement with the potential ban of import of energy from Russia. While the European Union is proposing a complete ban on oil imports from Russia by the end of 2022, Hungary is opposing this decision and demanding a longer transitional period of three to five years to comply with this policy. Slovakia and the Czech Republic are also in favor of a longer transitional period for compliance.

China produces and controls many of the minerals crucial to the global transition to green energy. As Europe suffers the consequences of a ban on Russian energy imports into EU, its transition to green energy  will be dependent on its trade engagements with China. America’s version of the new world order will be painful for Europe, with its people experiencing discomfort due to increase in prices across a range of commodities. Russia’s loss would still be China’s gain, as it still has economic opportunities to engage with Europe.

Europe’s policy to cut itself off from Russian energy supplies in an effort to cripple the Russian economy, might not have the impact that the western nations expect. If Russia is unable to sell its oil and natural gas to Europe, it can sell it to China, India and a host of other Asian nations, assuring the latter of a long-term, cheap access to its critical energy requirements. In many ways, the push for a new world order is an attempt by Russia and China against the possibility of Western military expansions in their regions.

In conclusion, there is nothing new about the possibilities of a new world order. Till date, global expectations were focused on a gradual emergence of new rules and the positions of international powers within the parameters of strategic interactions and international relations. The Ukraine conflict accelerated the formation of policies of the new world order by introducing Russia as a major player in the multi-polar conflict, which has undermined the security structure of Europe. The Ukraine conflict is much more than just restoring Russia’s influence on its former colony. It is more about a strategic repositioning by Russia to assume an international status that defines its growing power and influence. It is a direct challenge to the USA which finds itself in a difficult position to engage in a military confrontation that could hasten the end of US influence in Europe and possibly Asia as well. The current conflict in Ukraine and the potential crisis in Taiwan confirm that Russia and China are positioning themselves to fill the strategic vacuum created by the diminishing global role of the USA. The global balance of power is shifting rapidly as international and regional powers try to secure their place in the newest world order after decades of global American dominance.

 

Researched by:

Sardar Sanjay Matkar 

For FINS

[Forum for Integrated National Security]

May 2022.

Note: Links to reference articles are embedded in blue / purple.

Corporate Counter-Intelligence

 Corporate Counter–Intelligence

When we think of espionage and spies, the first thought that comes to our mind is that flamboyant agent with a three-digit code number, fast cars, glamour and of course the very unique ‘license to kill’.

In reality however; espionage and counter-espionage, which in current times is defined as data-mining and data analysis is the core of gathering information against your competitors and adversaries. However, most corporate and even law enforcement fail to understand the enormity of the threats themselves. Most professionals in the security sector have never had any training in counter-espionage and training in espionage is considered illegal in many countries. And, therein lies the problem. Since it is not taught at any level, and included as part of the overall security and risk management strategy, its literally unknown and ignored. However, it is actually a very critical issue in the management of risk.

From the guards at the gates, to members of the company’s I.T. dept, to the staff and executives at every level; the basic understanding of counter-espionage should be a required skill. This includes understanding that innocent sounding questions from visitors or even strangers need to be understood and deflected with diplomatic answers. Counter–espionage starts with the cleaning staff and goes all the way up to the CEO or Chairman of the company. It needs to be from the bottom of the pyramid all the way to the top, where everybody in the company needs to have an understanding of it and should be responsible about it. But, in reality most companies don’t even have a policy about it.

Espionage starts with research of the company from whom information is to be acquired. This consists of surveillance and data-mining (essentially intelligence gathering) to define the weak spots in the target organization; be it to identify a person from whom information can be easily obtained, to identifying weakness in the communications systems and of course in the I.T. system, which is more easy to hack, unless there is a presence of multiple fire-walls.

The general perception is that all aspects of intelligence gathering and counter-intelligence have to be high–tech and require large budgets. In actuality, it can be done on affordable budgets and using low-tech strategies. The reality is that espionage is all around us; whether sports, business, or politics. Industrial espionage is as old as political espionage. In both these areas, having knowledge about your competitor or adversary gives a winning advantage to the party with more information about others.

Money, Ideology, Coercion and Ego [MICE] are usually used either singularly or in any combinations to extract information about the target. In I.T. terminology, these are the four exploits to identify and utilize. Any exploitation that happens affects the profit margins of the organization under attack. It has been observed that Ego is the frequent factor in lack of reporting a breach to the concerned authorities, purely to save the company’s reputation from being damaged.

Educating the staff about espionage and its methods is the prime factor in preventing data leakage. This educational activity will lead to counter-espionage tactics and strategies, which in turn will reduce the risks faced by the companies and its clients and also save money in the long term. A basic understanding of security measures to be followed should be known to every security professional, from preventing humans sharing information, either knowingly or unknowingly with others, to ensuring firewalls and anti-hacking tools in the company’s I.T. system.

Another huge source of data leakage is the social media. What is posted by staff and executives can be data-mined, collated and analyzed; usually giving the surveillance entity a fair idea of what is happening in the company. Add to that, un-monitored PR messages can give away technical details of a product or service, essentially sharing proprietary information with the competition. Another leakage point is advertising the inner workings of the organization with too much details. Companies don’t work in isolation in these days of complex engineering or financial accounting. Companies are either contractors to a client, or sub-contractors, or have sub-contractors on a project. Leakage of data at any level means that the competition gets a deeper understanding of operations and designs; and this knowledge can lead to higher competition with lower profitability.

Finally, there is the issue of smart devices. Almost every device is connected to the internet; which means that it can be hacked. Hackers have tools that allow the devices camera and mic to be activated remotely, without the owner of the device knowing about it. Some hackers allow the data to be recorded and stored on the device itself and they retrieve that later when the device owner is sleeping or relaxing. While the device manufacturers and the app developers will give every assurance that their technology is safe and encrypted; its possible to be hacked if the device owners do not take appropriate measures to keep their devices safe from hacking, cracking, tracking or being targets of data-mining.