The question
that we should really ask is, “Why are we afraid of the Islamic State, aka
ISIS?”
The reason is
more about the thinking process of our collective mind-set, rather than the
actual risk that ISIS poses to the world. Is the Islamic State a dangerous
entity? Of course it is, but mostly to the people of Iraq, Syria, Turkey and
nations adjoining these three. The dangers posed to other countries across the
oceans are minimal and fractional as compared to the real dangers already
existing there-in.
It is a
matter of “Perceived Risk v/s Actual Risk” that we face as a society; that
influences our thinking and thereby influences our fear factor. Research has
shown that there are four reasons why some risks are perceived to be more
lethal than they actually are in reality.
1.
People
over-react to intentional actions and under-react to disasters and accidents.
That is why people in India panic over the fact that a handful of Indian youth
are joining ISIS (remembering that terrorist attacks that have killed about
4,500 people on an average every year over the last ten years) and completely
ignoring railway accidents (that have killed and keep killing approximately 15,000
people every year).
Terrorist activities are intentional actions while railway
deaths are thought off as natural accidents, therefore every small act
connected to terrorism grabs people attention while railway accidents don’t
capture our thoughts in same manner.
2.
People
over-react to incidents and acts that offend their morality. When people feel
insulted or are angered by acts that question their way-of-life, they react
with anger, fear and a need for action.
3.
People
over-react to what they consider as immediate threats (such as radicalization
of youth and surge in religious rhetoric) while under-reacting to threats that
kill over a period of time (such as medical deaths) or have become a natural
part of life (deaths due to accidents and / or negligence).
4.
Human
brains process every sudden event on the “fight or flight” perspective. But if
the rate of change is slow enough, this change will not have a major impact.
(In the past the use of foul language in public used to draw out the anger of
the general population, but over the last 15 years, foul words have crept
slowly into the vocabulary, and the mix of foul words during conversations no
longer offends the majority of the people).
5.
Especially
in India, people have the tendency to exaggerate rare or non-frequent risks and
ignore common risks. They worry more about being killed by bombs and bullets,
than getting killed by contagious diseases; even though various diseases claim
many more lives.
6.
In
daily life, there are many hidden dangers that kill an average Indian. From
disease, to railway and road accidents, to diabetic strokes and heart- attacks.
Yet, people under-estimate the risks that they take on willingly and
over-estimate risks in the situations that they have no control over. When people have to take a risk voluntarily,
they usually under-estimate it. When forced to take a risk, they tend to
over-estimate it. Terrorists seem to be considered fearsome because they attack
at their own convenience and without advance warnings. The fear-factor arises
from the thinking that as individuals we cannot stop terrorists; but that as a
society the combined might of the people should be capable of stopping them; which
in their minds ends up being the responsibility of the Government.
In the final
analysis, people over-estimate risks about those topics that are discussed in
the news, at any given time. News, by its very definition is an abnormality in
the natural course of a life-style. Endless number of fatalities by diseases
and accidents never make the news headlines as much as one terror attack or news
about recruitment by terrorists. While, it seems that news outlets like to use
terrorism and its false narratives for TRPs, it is for us, the people to decide
whether to be afraid of terrorism or to reject is as just another danger in the
course of our life-style.
